The TD Sequential accurately marked Solana’s local top in early January, preceding the sharp decline that followed.
Since then, the downside sequence has completed, and the indicator has now flashed a fresh buy signal.
This shift matters because it appears after exhaustion rather than during distribution. The signal suggests downside momentum has likely run its course.
However, it does not imply a trend reversal. Instead, it points to a short-term recovery window where sellers lose control.
Solana [SOL] price responding positively reinforces this interpretation. Still, the signal works best when aligned with structure, which remains mixed.
Solana price rebounds but stays capped by regression resistance
Solana’s price has rebounded cleanly from the $100 support, a level that has repeatedly attracted demand. From this base, price has recovered toward $104, confirming buyer presence.
However, the broader structure still reflects a descending regression trend that continues to cap upside attempts.
Price remains above the regression mean, which previously rejected recovery rallies near $120 and $146. Therefore, the rebound currently reflects stabilization rather than strength.
As long as the price holds above $100, recovery attempts remain valid. However, failure to reclaim the regression mean would keep the move corrective.
Source: TradingView
MACD remains below the zero line, confirming the broader bearish structure. However, its behavior has changed.
The histogram is flattening rather than expanding lower, signaling that selling pressure is easing. This stabilization aligns with price holding support instead of accelerating downward.
Importantly, previous declines saw MACD momentum deepen aggressively. This time, momentum loss appears controlled. That shift supports a recovery narrative.
However, MACD has not turned positive. Therefore, the indicator favors stabilization and relief rather than a sustained upside impulse.
Aggressive spot buying supports the bounce
Spot Taker CVD remained buyer-dominant at press time, showing that traders continue to execute market buys despite recent downside pressure.
This behavior matters because it reflects urgency rather than hesitation. Earlier in the decline, aggressive buying failed to lift price, as sellers absorbed demand near resistance.
Now, price responds more constructively, indicating absorption has begun translating into recovery. That shift suggests selling pressure has weakened. However, buyer dominance alone does not guarantee continuation. Sellers still appear near overhead levels, especially below regression resistance.
Still, sustained taker buying limits downside risk. Buyers consistently defend dips instead of waiting for deeper pullbacks.
As long as taker dominance persists, price is likely to maintain upward drift rather than sharp rejection. The metric supports a controlled recovery, not an impulsive breakout.
Source: CryptoQuant
Solana exchange outflows reduce immediate sell pressure
Spot Netflows remain negative, with approximately $52.4 million in SOL leaving exchanges during the latest session as price rebounds toward $104.
This scale of withdrawal signals reduced supply available for immediate selling. Besides, these outflows continue even as price recovers, suggesting holders prefer custody over distribution into strength.
This behavior contrasts with typical relief rallies, where inflows often increase. However, negative netflows do not guarantee upside.
They simply reduce forced sell pressure during pullbacks. When combined with buyer-dominant spot activity, the setup favors stabilization. Sellers face a tighter supply, while buyers encounter less overhead liquidity.
As long as netflows remain negative, downside extensions become harder to sustain. This dynamic supports the ongoing recovery structure.
Source: CryptoQuant
In summary, Solana’s recovery reflects genuine stabilization supported by a TD buy signal, easing momentum, strong spot demand, and continued exchange outflows.
However, price remains capped below descending regression resistance. As a result, the move currently favors controlled recovery rather than trend reversal.
Sustained upside would require reclaiming key regression levels, while holding $100 keeps the recovery intact.
Final Thoughts
- Solana’s recovery looks deliberate, driven by steady demand rather than emotional short covering.
- Trend resistance still defines risk, making continuation dependent on the buyer’s follow-through.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/solana-gets-a-td-buy-trigger-near-100-but-upside-for-sol-depends-on/
