Dogecoin Shows 2020-Like Structure As Dollar Loses Strength

Dogecoin received more attention this week as traders pointed out a typical big-picture trend. They said that the action in the US Dollar Index and gold was in line with Dogecoin’s action.

On February 3, Trader Tardigrade said that today’s market is very similar to what happened before Dogecoin’s breakout in 2020. At that time, the DOGE bottomed out while the dollar reached its peak, and funds began to flow out of traditional safe-haven assets.

Source: X

This is important because DOGE does not respond much to small technical changes. It responds to overall liquidity conditions. When the dollar is not strong, the conditions for finance become loose, and people become more willing to take risks on speculative assets.

This is why DOGE went up so much in 2020-2021 when the US Dollar Index went down, and altcoins picked up pace in the market.

Also Read: Dogecoin (DOGE) Hits Multi-Month Low as Price Approaches $0.10 Support

Dollar and Gold Trends Shape Dogecoin Cycles

Looking at DOGE, the US dollar index, and gold over a long period of time, there is a cycle that keeps repeating. DOGE’s price will increase the most when the US dollar index is weakening, not strengthening. When the US dollar index slows down, funds tend to flow into higher-risk assets, which is why DOGE is so volatile.

Gold gives context, not competition. During the presence of easy money policies, gold tends to rise steadily as it is used as a hedge against currency risk, whereas Dogecoin tends to rise more sharply as it is more speculative in nature.

In previous cycles, DOGE tended to form rounded buildup patterns as gold rose and the dollar fell. This indicates that both these assets are influenced by the same major market forces, despite the differences in their price actions.

As we peer into the early part of 2026, the dollar index has started to decline after being at a high level for such a long period of time, and gold is close to record highs.

Such a combination indicates that there is still uncertainty in the big picture and a change in liquidity, which has allowed Dogecoin to increase during previous phases of expansion.

Technical Picture Improves, but Pressure Remains

However, despite the favorable macro environment, the short-term chart for Dogecoin is still under pressure. The price is still below a group of declining moving averages, indicating that the bears are still in control of the trend. The recent attempts to bounce back have failed to break above these levels.

Source: X

One level to keep an eye on is the former pivot high at around $0.127, which is near the $0.13 level that is closely watched. This level is the major resistance area and the last lower high in the pattern.

In order for any change in trend to be considered genuine, Dogecoin has to reclaim this area. As far as momentum is concerned, the four-hour MACD has flipped positive.

Also Read: Dogecoin Rally Alert: $0.109 Base Holds as Institutional ETF Arrives