BCH is continuing its downtrend in parallel with the general pressure in altcoin markets; while recent swing lows form a critical support at the $531.92 level, a breakout above $550 could signal a trend change.
Market Structure Overview
BCH’s current market structure indicates a clear downtrend. Price is trading below EMA20 ($563.64) and Supertrend signal is in bearish position ($621.61 resistance). RSI at 39.32 is in neutral-bearish zone, MACD shows negative histogram. Total 12 strong levels detected in 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 4 supports/3 resistances in 1D, 2S/2R in 3D, 2S/3R balance in 1W. This structure confirms the lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern; despite a slight 0.64% recovery in the last 24 hours ($509.60-$542.10 range), overall momentum is downward. Market structure analysis defines higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) as bullish trend, LH/LL as bearish trend. Currently, LH/LL dominates in BCH, meaning each new high is lower than the previous high, each low is lower than the previous low. This supports trend continuation, but a break of nearby support could trigger CHoCH (Change of Character).
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For bullish HH/HL structure, price must close sustainably above the recent swing high of $550.78 (81/100 score). If this level breaks, the next target is $568.53 (62/100) and tests EMA20. Currently, RSI 39 rising above 50 and MACD turning positive could give early bullish signals, but HH formation is distant at current $532 price. Potential bullish continuation target is $730.17 (22/100 score), but low probability. If $531.92 support holds, short-term HL formation may be observed, though overall MTF structure does not support it.
Downtrend Risk
Downtrend confirmed with LH/LL: Recent swing high $550.78 below previous $568.53; recent low $531.92 above previous $510 but overall LL trend continues. If $531.92 breaks, BOS (Break of Structure) becomes bearish, accelerating toward $510.01 (67/100). Deeper LLs point to $446.90 (63/100) and bearish target $309.27 (4/100). BTC’s decline is pressuring altcoins, with similar LH/LL patterns increasing in BCH.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
BOS is the break of trend structure: For bullish BOS, daily close above $550.78 is required, invalidating LH and signaling transition to HH/HL. BOS extending to $568.53 breaks EMA20 and targets $669.60. Bearish BOS is close below $531.92: This breaks recent HL, confirms LL, and opens path to $510.01. CHoCH definition: Change of character in structure, e.g., sudden HH formation in bearish LH/LL. Current $532 price is very close to $531.92, making it a BOS trigger. In MTF, 1W resistances (3R) dominate, so upside BOS is difficult.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
$550.78 (81/100): Most critical resistance, protecting trend as LH. Breakout makes BOS bullish, staying below continues LH/LL. $568.53 (62/100): Medium-term resistance, near EMA20. $669.60 (60/100): Long-term, aligns with Supertrend. These swings must be tested for trend reversal; holding below increases selling pressure.
Recent Swing Lows
$531.92 (84/100): Current strongest support, price at $532 is stuck here. Hold forms HL, break makes BOS bearish. $510.01 (67/100): Next defense, near 24h low. $446.90 (63/100): Deep support, aligned in MTF 3D/1W. Swing lows define HL as support; break accelerates bearish momentum.
Bitcoin Correlation
BCH is a highly correlated altcoin to BTC; BTC at $76,485 (-2.48%) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. If BTC supports $75,755 / $72,946 / $61,211 break, BCH LH/LL accelerates and drop below $510 likely. BTC resistances $77,862 / $79,972 / $82,178 recovery gives BCH breathing room, could trigger $550 BOS. BTC dominance rise crushes altcoins, current BTC structure requires attention in BCH Spot Analysis and BCH Futures Analysis.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend dominates, $531.92 critical. If holds, monitor $550 BOS, breakout turns to HL. Otherwise, expect $510 and lower LLs. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic; changes with BOS/CHoCH, follow levels instead of static predictions. MTF balance (more 1W resistance) strengthens short-term bearish bias. Lack of news highlights technical structure.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/bch-technical-analysis-february-4-2026-market-structure
