In brief
- Bitcoin has firmly entered a downward price trend, and may be headed below $60,000, according to analysis from Galaxy.
- Structural weakness in Bitcoin’s price could send it towards its 200-week moving average of $58,000.
- BTC has fallen around 1.4% on Tuesday, recently changing hands around $77,873.
Bitcoin has dropped nearly by $50,000, or 38% from its October all-time high mark, to change hands below $80,000— but the downward trend could accelerate further, dragging the price below $60,000 per coin, according to Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn.
Thorn’s analysis points to structural weakness in Bitcoin’s realized price and 200-week moving average, its failure to stand up as a debasement hedge while gold surged, and a lack of near-term catalysts as reasons the top crypto asset is likely to trade lower in the near-future.
“Catalysts remain hard to find, and narratives are also working against Bitcoin as it fails to trade along with gold and silver as part of a market-wide ‘debasement hedge trade,’” Thorn wrote on X.
“While it could see chop around the historic max discount-to-ETF-cost-basis of -10% (currently around $76K), for the reasons above, there is a significant chance that BTC drifts towards the bottom of the supply gap ($70K) and then potentially tests the realized price ($56K) and 200-week moving average ($58K) over the coming weeks and months,” he added.
Historical on-chain evidence points to a further drop as well. According to data gathered by Thorn, whenever Bitcoin has dropped at least 40% from its all-time high, it has extended the losses to 50% in every instance except one.
Furthermore, data from the last three bull markets indicates that when Bitcoin’s price dropped below the 50-day moving average, it fell further to the 200-week moving average—in this case, $58,000. Unfortunately for Bitcoin bulls, the top crypto asset fell below its 50-day moving average in November.
If the trend continues, it is likely to fall towards $58,000, per Thorn’s analysis.
While Bitcoin’s weakness is apparent, a glimmer of hope may be building for those with longer time frames, as long-term profit-taking has finally begun relenting.
“2024 and 2025 saw more profit-taking in dollar terms by long-term holders than any other time in Bitcoin’s history,” said Thorn. “This distribution has finally abated, though it’s possible there are more long-term holders who are waiting for higher prices to sell.”
“Nonetheless, the recent decline in long-term holder realized profit taking is notable, and should signal we are closing in on a bottom,” he added.
Bitcoin has fallen around 1.14 in the last 24 hours and more than 15% in the last month, recently changing hands at $77,873. On Sunday, the price fell below the $75,000 mark, with BTC hitting its lowest price since 2024.
A drop to $58,000—the 200-week moving average—would result in around 25% more losses, but the price would offer an attractive level for long-term investors, Thorn said.
“If Bitcoin falls lower towards the 200-week moving average or the realized price, these levels should present strong entry points for long-term investors as they have in the past,” he concluded.
Users on Myriad—a prediction market operated by Decrypt‘s parent company, Dastan—agree that Bitcoin is likely headed lower, giving a it a 66% chance of falling to $69,000 sooner than it can rise back to $100,000.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/356789/bitcoin-could-drop-below-60k-galaxy-analyst-heres-why
