Bitcoin’s market structure is clearly maintaining the downtrend; bearish structure dominates with the recent lower high and lower low formation. $74.604 swing low is critical support, while the $79.396 BOS level above should be watched for trend change.
Market Structure Overview
Bitcoin’s current market structure reflects a classic downtrend. Recently, the higher high/higher low (HH/HL) structure was abandoned in favor of the lower high/lower low (LH/LL) formation. The current price is trading at $79.019, and despite a 2.25% rise over the last 24 hours, the overall structure remains bearish. A total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/4 resistance on 1D, 2 support/3 resistance on 3D, and 1 support/2 resistance on 1W, predominantly resistance-heavy. This distribution indicates that resistance pressure outweighs upside moves. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and is positioned at resistance $86.799. The price not being above EMA20 ($86.412) reinforces the short-term bearish structure. Although RSI at 29.55 is approaching oversold territory, MACD’s negative histogram confirms downward momentum. News flow is also bearish: Bitcoin fell below MicroStrategy’s cost basis of $76.037 for the first time since October 2023 and below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025. In this context, the market structure maintains its downward bias, but oversold conditions carry potential for a short-term bounce.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For an uptrend, re-establishing the HH/HL structure is essential. The 2.25% recovery from the $74.604 swing low in the last 24 hours could form a potential higher low (HL). RSI’s oversold level at 29.55 may signal a short-term reversal. However, for true bullish confirmation, the price needs to break above the recent lower high at $79.396 and then form a new higher high. On multi-timeframe, the single 1D support level ($74.604, score 72/100) could support this HL. If price breaks $82.112 resistance, a broader HH/HL structure may begin to form. For now, these are hypothetical; the uptrend remains weak without breaking the current LL structure.
Downtrend Risk
The downtrend is clear with LH/LL: The recent swing high at $84.450 (score 76/100) was not broken, followed by a $79.396 lower high, and price made a $74.604 lower low. This confirms a change of character (CHoCH) bearish structure. Remaining below Supertrend resistance at $86.799 and EMA20 provides continuation signal. MACD bearish histogram and MTF resistance dominance (9R/4S) increase the risk of breaking below $74.604. Bearish target points to $57. News (MicroStrategy base break) strengthens this LL structure.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Break of structure (BOS) levels will determine trend direction. Critical for bullish BOS: Clear break and close above $79.396 swing high (score 72/100), which could invalidate LH and confirm HL. Stronger bullish BOS at $82.112 (score 67/100) and ultimately breaking $84.450. Breaking these levels signals transition to HH/HL and opens $100 target. Bearish BOS is a drop below $74.604 swing low (score 72/100): This confirms current LL and paves way to $57 with new lower low. By CHoCH definition, bearish BOS appears more likely as momentum is downward. Watch: Daily closes at these levels.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs: $84.450 (strongest, score 76/100) – Main resistance, LH start here. $82.112 (score 67/100) – Medium-term test level. $79.396 (score 72/100) – Short-term BOS level, point of price rejection. These levels define LH structure; breaking them changes trend. Holding above $79.396 would be the first bullish sign.
Recent Swing Lows
Recent swing lows: $74.604 (score 72/100) – Critical support, recent LL formed here. MTF supports on 1D/3D/1W are limited; breaking this level accelerates downside with cascade effect. Previous lows (e.g., $76.037 MicroStrategy level) should also be monitored. This swing low offers HL opportunity but carries high break risk in bearish structure.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL dominant, BOS levels favor downside break. Short-term $74.604-$79.396 range is consolidation zone; oversold RSI may bring bounce but EMA20 and Supertrend resistance dominate. Bearish BOS (below $74.604) expected for trend continuation, bullish BOS (above $79.396) for reversal. Investors should use swing points as stop-loss. Market structures are dynamic; follow daily closes. For spot, check BTC spot; for futures, BTC futures pages. This analysis is price action focused, using indicators supportively.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/btc-technical-analysis-february-2-2026-market-structure
