Prediction market volume hit $12 billion in January, breaking all-time records

January was loud for the prediction market. Total trading volume cleared $12 billion for the month and set a fresh all-time high. Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Probable each crossed $1 billion on their own.

Fees followed the activity. On-chain fees passed $11 million in January across the prediction market space. Opinion alone generated $6.14 million.

Polymarket added $2.62 million. The rest of the platforms filled in the balance as users placed bets tied to politics, sports, and other real-world outcomes.

Kalshi and Polymarket lead volumes, shares, and open interest

Kalshi posted a $137 million seven-day average volume, and its thirty-day average stood at $119.66 million, according to data from Dune.

Kalshi’s ninety-day average reached $97.54 million, week-over-week volume rose 10.62%, month-over-month came in at 37.71%, and quarter-over-quarter jumped 128.63%.

Source: Dune

Kalshi currently holds 28.10% market share over seven days, 29.80% over thirty days, and 31.36% over ninety days. Open interest totaled $428.18 million. Its volume-to-open-interest ratio was 32%, a level traders watch closely in any prediction setup.

Polymarket stayed close. Its seven-day average volume hit $129.16 million. The thirty-day average reached $110.19 million. The ninety-day average printed $82.23 million. Week over week volume increased 15.76%.

Month over month climbed 48.53%. Quarter over quarter rose 162.49%. Market share measured 26.49% over seven days, 27.45% over thirty days, and 26.44% over ninety days. Open interest reached $405.85 million. The volume-to-open-interest ratio came in at 31.83%.

Probable showed extreme numbers. Its seven-day average volume reached $101.78 million. Month-over-month volume surged 589.70%. Open interest was only $3.55 million. That pushed the volume to open interest ratio to 2870.49%, one of the highest readings across the prediction sector.

Opinion recorded $101.02 million in seven-day volume, $107.14 million over thirty days, and $90.22 million over ninety days. Open interest sat at $128.23 million, producing a 78.78% ratio.

Smaller platforms post sharp swings across weekly and monthly data

Predict Fun averaged $10.97 million over seven days. Week over week volume fell 25.83%. Month over month jumped 277.84%. Quarter over quarter showed an extreme percentage due to earlier low activity.

Open interest stood at $21.37 million with a 51.36% ratio. Limitless Exchange averaged $3.51 million over seven days. Weekly volume rose 170.03%. Open interest was $364.21k, producing a 962.77% ratio.

SX Bet posted $2.52 million in seven-day volume and $744.08k in open interest. Its ratio reached 338.66%.PancakeSwap Prediction recorded $566.36k in seven-day volume with a 0.12% market share.

Myriad Markets averaged $427.05k with $808.32k in open interest. Football.Fun handled $291.76k weekly while holding $5.09 million in open interest, keeping its ratio low at 5.73%.

Rain showed a massive 8101.94% weekly increase on $116.23k volume.DFlow Prediction Market posted $94.71k with 111.48% weekly growth and $1.41 million in open interest.

Source: Dune

Alpha Arcade, Gacha, Seer, X3X, Truemarkets, Ninja Blaze, and Punk.Coffee all remained small but continued to report volumes, open interest, and ratios, showing how wide the prediction landscape has become.

Regulators are rewriting rules of prediction markets as politics and sports drive activity

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it will write new rules for the multi-billion-dollar prediction industry. Chairman Michael Selig said, “It is time for clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation in these markets.” He added, “I will continue to support the responsible development of event contract markets.”

Kalshi Inc. and the US arm of Polymarket operate CFTC-regulated exchanges that let users trade outcomes tied to elections and the Super Bowl. Activity surged even as some state gaming regulators pushed back. Sports contracts drove most of Kalshi’s volume, based on data from Dune Analytics.

The Trump family also entered the space. Donald Trump Jr. became an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. announced plans for its own marketplace. None of the firms commented on the rule changes.

Selig withdrew a 2024 proposal issued under former chairman Rostin Behnam that sought to ban sports and political contracts. He also pulled a 2025 staff advisory tied to litigation. “It has instead contributed to uncertainty in our markets,” Selig said. He added that the CFTC would defend its exclusive authority over commodity derivatives.

Selig took office in December and spoke alongside Paul Atkins, the SEC chairman, at a crypto regulation panel. Both agencies said they will work together while lawmakers debate oversight. The Senate Agriculture Committee passed a bill giving the CFTC authority over spot commodities like Bitcoin. A companion bill in the Senate Banking Committee stalled over limits on exchange rewards. Formal legislation is still required, Selig said.

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