ASTER is trading in a critical squeeze zone at $0.55; it continues its downward trend with a 5.95% drop in the last 24 hours, but oversold signals in RSI make the bullish scenario possible. On the other hand, weak supports and Bitcoin’s bearish structure increase the downside risk, requiring both scenarios to be considered.
Current Market Situation
ASTER is currently trading at $0.55 and experienced a 5.95% drop in the last 24 hours. The price range narrowed between $0.51 – $0.59, while trading volume remained at $438.50 million. The overall trend is downward; price is trading below EMA20 ($0.64) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, creating pressure with the $0.72 resistance level.
RSI at 34.83 is close to the oversold zone, indicating short-term rebound potential. The MACD histogram is negative and maintains bearish momentum. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 9 strong levels were detected in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1D with 0 support/1 resistance, 3D with 1 support/2 resistance, 1W with 2 support/4 resistance. Main resistance $0.6091 (score 73/100), no strong support level (score >=60 none). This structure indicates that price can make sharp moves depending on the breakout direction. No breaking news specific to ASTER in the market, general altcoin pressure dominates.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How Does This Scenario Happen?
For the bullish scenario, a strong hold from the recent low at $0.51 and volume increase to break above the $0.59 range is required first. The main trigger will be a clear break of the $0.6091 resistance (score 73/100); closing above this level will push RSI above 50 and trigger a bullish crossover in MACD. Supertrend turning green and crossing EMA20 ($0.64) will strengthen momentum. With 3D and 1W supports coming into play in MTF (e.g., 2 supports in 1W), buyers take control. Bitcoin turning up from $77,966 support will support the altcoin rally. A 50%+ increase in volume and positive divergences give confirmation signals. In this scenario, invalidation is a drop below $0.51.
Target Levels
First target $0.72 Supertrend resistance, then main bullish target $0.9570 (score 26). It can extend to $1.05 and $1.20 with Fibonacci extension levels. Risk/reward ratio from current price is around 1:1.7; after $0.6091 breakout, stop-loss can be pulled below $0.59. Check detailed charts on the ASTER Spot Analysis page.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario is triggered by breaking the recent low at $0.51; this exposes the weak support structure (limited support in MTF) and accelerates panic selling. MACD bearish histogram expansion, RSI dropping below 30, and volume spike confirm the downside. Distance from EMA20 and continued Supertrend sell signal persist. Bitcoin breaking $77,966 and rising dominance crushes altcoins. The 7 resistances in 1D/3D/1W in MTF (out of total 9 levels) limit upside moves and encourage short positions. Negative news flow (regulation etc.) acts as a catalyst. Invalidation is a strong close above $0.59.
Protection Levels
First protection $0.51 recent low, after breakout $0.45 psychological and MTF 3D support. Main bearish target $0.1344 (score 22), risk of zeroing out to $0.10 below. Risk/reward 1:1.6; for longs stop below $0.51, for shorts above $0.6091. Manage leveraged risks with ASTER Futures Analysis.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Key triggers: For bullish, $0.6091 breakout with volume + RSI >45 + BTC approaching $80,254. For bearish, $0.51 breakout + no MACD divergence + BTC below $77,966. Confirmation signals: 4H closes, volume profile, and OBV rise/fall. Pivot point $0.55; above bull, below bear biased. High volatility in both scenarios, position sizing critical.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $78,541 with 5.49% drop in downtrend; Supertrend bearish. Altcoins like ASTER are highly correlated to BTC (%0.85+), if BTC breaks $77,966 support, ASTER tests $0.51. If BTC rises to $80,254 resistance, ASTER gains upside with altcoin rotation. Watch: BTC supports $75,714/$64,655 (accelerates ASTER downside), resistances $83,160/$86,776 (green light for ASTER rally).
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
Due to the unbalanced structure in ASTER, both scenarios are equally likely; traders should adapt by monitoring trigger levels. Daily monitoring: $0.6091/$0.51 breakouts, RSI/MACD changes, BTC moves, and volume. Weekly MTF review recommended. Make your decision based on your own risk tolerance, follow current data from spot and futures pages. This analysis is for educational purposes and helps you understand market dynamics.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/aster-technical-analysis-february-1-2026-will-it-rise-or-fall
