JPMorgan Predicts Gold Could Reach $8,500 Long-Term as Bitcoin Futures Fall

TLDR

• JPMorgan reports Bitcoin futures are oversold, while silver has reached overbought levels in early 2026.
• Silver ETF inflows surged in Q4 2025, while Bitcoin ETFs saw a decline in retail interest.
• Gold remains a strong investment, with predictions of it reaching $8,500 in the long term.
• JPMorgan forecasts institutional interest in gold to push its price upwards despite short-term risks.

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JPMorgan analysts report that Bitcoin futures are currently oversold, while silver futures have entered overbought territory, reflecting changing market dynamics. The analysts noted a shift in investor interest from Bitcoin to precious metals such as gold and silver, particularly during the latter half of 2025.

This shift has been supported by both retail and institutional investors moving away from Bitcoin towards more traditional assets like gold and silver.

In a report issued by JPMorgan, analysts pointed out that the increased demand for gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) coincided with a decline in Bitcoin ETF inflows.

The research highlighted a noticeable drop in Bitcoin ETF flows starting in August 2025, suggesting that retail investors may be steering clear of Bitcoin in favor of precious metals.

Institutional Investors Favor Silver and Gold Over Bitcoin

JPMorgan’s data also shows a notable increase in institutional interest in silver and gold futures. This was particularly evident in the last quarter of 2025, when hedge funds and other institutional investors started taking long positions in these precious metals. On the other hand, Bitcoin futures did not see similar increases in institutional positioning over the same period.

The shift in investor behavior has been attributed to the appeal of gold and silver as hedges against economic uncertainties. These assets are considered a safer alternative, especially in times of market volatility. The analysts observed that this movement has contributed to a rise in the prices of gold and silver. However, they also warned that the significant buildup of positions in these metals could lead to a correction or profit-taking in the near term.

Gold’s Long-Term Potential with $8,500 Target

Despite short-term risks in precious metals, JPMorgan analysts remain optimistic about gold’s long-term potential. The report suggests that gold could reach a price range of $8,000 to $8,500 in the coming years. This forecast is based on ongoing increases in gold allocations by both private investors and central banks.

JPMorgan anticipates that private investors, in particular, will continue to allocate more capital to gold as an alternative to long-duration bonds. This shift is expected to be driven by growing concerns over inflation and the need for a safe haven.

Central banks are also predicted to continue diversifying their reserves with gold. The analysts noted that these factors could push the price of gold to new highs over the long term, as institutional investors increase their exposure to this asset class.

Bitcoin’s Positioning and Future Outlook

Although Bitcoin’s futures market is currently oversold, JPMorgan’s analysts have a more cautious stance on the cryptocurrency’s immediate future. Despite the volatility and recent pullbacks, Bitcoin remains part of a broader strategy for many investors.

The bank’s previous forecast suggested that Bitcoin could see substantial gains, potentially reaching as high as $170,000 within a year. However, the current lack of momentum in Bitcoin futures suggests that near-term growth may be limited.

JPMorgan’s report indicates that Bitcoin’s future performance could largely depend on the behavior of institutional investors and how market conditions evolve. If the trend of declining retail interest continues, Bitcoin might face challenges in regaining the momentum seen in previous years.

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