Does Bitcoin’s 9% volatility surge signal more BTC downside?

Bitcoin’s [BTC] slips below $84,000 ahead of the option’s expiry, and the timing matters.

Bitcoin’s price trends are lower on the daily chart, forming lower highs since October, which signals weakening momentum. Volume expands on sell-offs; therefore, sellers stay active.

Source: Deribit/X

Meanwhile, DVOL jumped about 9% to 41.6, at press time, reflecting rising demand for protection. This volatility spike aligns with expiry positioning rather than a deep structural break.

Source: Deribit/X

Still, the structure showed caution where the market failed to reclaim the $90,000 zone, and rebounds faded quickly.

Market sentiment has shifted to a defensive stance instead of a panicked one. Overall, expiry pressure amplifies the dip, while the broader trend remains fragile.

Options expiry pins price as cautious

BTC trades sideways, ahead of the expiry on the 30th of January, and options data heightens near-term tension.

At the time of writing, Total Notional Value stood at roughly $7.26 billion, underscoring the scale of capital clustered around this event.

In the last 24 hours, BTC’s Put/Call ratio rose to 1.11, reflecting a short-term tilt toward downside protection. However, aggregate positioning still shows a lower 0.44 put/call ratio, meaning calls dominate overall open interest.

Source: Deribit

This split signals caution rather than capitulation. Traders hedge near-term risk while maintaining broader upside exposure. Meanwhile, max pain sits at $90,000, reinforcing its role as a price magnet, as spot continues to stall just below it.

As expiry approaches, positioning could either pin BTC near this level or amplify sharp, hedge-driven volatility around key strikes.

Ethereum [ETH] mirrors the caution but with softer conviction.

Total options notional stands near $1.17 billion, confirming sizable capital clustered around key strikes.

Source: Deribit

In the past 24 hours, ETH’s Put/Call Ratio climbed to 1.38, at press time, signaling elevated demand for downside protection.

However, broader Open Interest showed a 0.67 Put/Call ratio, meaning calls still dominate structurally despite short-term hedging.

Max pain at $3100 anchors expectations and limits aggressive directional bets. Overall, positioning suggests the market has a constructive but fragile sentiment.

Traders remain optimistic structurally, yet they respect near-term risk. Thus, expiry likely amplifies volatility around key levels rather than resolving the broader trend decisively.

BTC Hashrate decline amplifies market fragility

Bitcoin’s hashrate records its largest drawdown since October 2021, and the catalyst is clear. Severe U.S. winter storms forced miners offline, pushing hashrate down roughly 12% to about 970 EH/s.

However, the decline began earlier, as BTC corrected from $126,000 to near $100,000, which compressed miner margins.

Source: CryptoQuant/X

As the BTC price fell, less efficient rigs shut down, reinforcing the hashrate slide. Historically, hashrate trends upward over time, with drawdowns marking stress periods.

In 2021, a sharp hashrate drop preceded consolidation, then a strong recovery.

Similarly, restoring power, stabilizing price, and improving mining profitability could lift the hashrate again, rebuilding confidence and supporting broader market sentiment.

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Final Thoughts

• Expiry-driven positioning, rising volatility, and miner stress point to a defensive market, not panic, with BTC vulnerable to short-term swings around key levels.

• Despite price weakness and a 12% hashrate drawdown, historical patterns suggest network recovery and stabilization could restore confidence once temporary shocks fade.

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Source: https://ambcrypto.com/does-bitcoins-9-volatility-surge-signal-more-btc-downside/