Ripple’s XRP in Historic Consolidation: Breakout or Breakdown Next?

Ripple’s XRP is trading near $1.81 after slipping almost 5% over the past day. The asset is down roughly 6% this week, extending a steady decline that started earlier this month.

Even so, some analysts say XRP is approaching a key level, with recent chart patterns and wallet data pointing to the potential for a bigger move.

One of XRP’s Longest Consolidation Phases

Steph Is Crypto shared a chart showing XRP in what may be its longest consolidation period to date. The current phase has lasted around 434 days, matching or exceeding previous long basing periods seen in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2023. In each of those cases, XRP eventually broke out to the upside.

The token is now moving within a tight range between $1.80 and $2.00. Traders are watching to see if the price can hold support and make another attempt to clear $2.00. The setup appears similar to earlier phases that came before sharp rallies.

Furthermore, a chart from ChartNerd outlines two possible paths for XRP. The pattern is based on a structure that repeats over time: accumulation, breakout, and reaccumulation. XRP is currently sitting just above the support zone at $1.80. ChartNerd described this level as a key point for bulls.

A move higher from here could set up another breakout. If the price breaks below $1.80, the chart points to “Scenario 2,” which would mean a deeper pullback before any recovery begins.

Signs of Accumulation Among Large Holders

According to Santiment, XRP has gained 42 new wallets holding at least one million tokens since the start of the year. This is the first rise in “millionaire” wallets since September 2025. During the same time, the price has only dropped about 4%, suggesting accumulation among large holders.

In addition, XRP-linked ETFs have also seen fresh demand. According to SoSoValue data, January brought in $91.72 million in net inflows, following $666 million in November and $499 million in December.

XRP Spot ETF Net Inflow 1.29. Source: SoSoValue

This steady interest shows that institutional buyers are still active, even as the price action remains limited.

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