Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has pushed to a new high, signaling continued capital inflows into the network rather than price-driven speculation. Realized cap measures the value of coins based on the last time they moved on-chain. As a result, an increase points to fresh demand entering at higher cost bases.
At the same time, on-chain data shows a shift in long-term holder behavior. During late 2025, long-term holders distributed a large amount of supply, creating visible selling pressure. However, that supply failed to push prices lower in a sustained way. Instead, the market absorbed the selling, and price levels held.
Bitcoin Long Term Holder Net Position Change 30 Day. Source: CryptoQuant / X
Following that absorption, long-term holder net position change has moved back toward accumulation. This indicates that older coins are no longer flowing to the market at the same pace. Consequently, the supply overhang that often marks cycle peaks has weakened.
Together, rising realized cap and reduced long-term holder selling suggest a change in market structure. Capital continues to enter the network while legacy supply stays relatively inactive. Historically, this combination has appeared during consolidation phases that follow heavy distribution, rather than at final cycle tops.
The current setup reflects a market that has digested a major sell attempt and stabilized. With realized cap still climbing and long-term holders no longer distributing aggressively, on-chain data points to a reset phase rather than a completed cycle.
Bitcoin Trades Below Yearly High as Chart Points to $110,000 Level
Bitcoin continued to trade below key resistance levels as market participants focused on a potential breakout toward $110,000. On the daily BTC/USDT perpetual contract chart, price hovered near $89,000 after pulling back from recent highs, while several yearly reference levels remained in play.
Bitcoin TetherUS Perpetual Contract 1 Day Chart. Source: TradingView / X
The chart highlights the yearly open near the high $87,000 area and the January 2025 low slightly above $89,000, both acting as a short term base. After rebounding from that zone, Bitcoin moved higher toward the yearly high around $97,900 but failed to secure a sustained close above it. As a result, price slipped back into a consolidation range rather than extending the move.
Technical levels marked on the chart show that a weekly close above the $98,000 area would place Bitcoin back above the yearly high. Historically, reclaiming such levels has opened the path toward testing prior cycle highs. In this case, the next major reference sits near the January 2025 high around $110,000, which remains untested.
The projected path on the chart suggests higher highs forming after a base near the yearly open. However, price still trades well below the key breakout zone. Until Bitcoin secures a decisive close above the yearly high, the structure reflects recovery attempts rather than confirmed continuation.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14135/bitcoin-price-prediction-as-realized-cap-hits-new-high-points-110-k
