Current market structure remains fixed in a sideways trend, short-term upward momentum is observed above EMA20, but caution is advised due to Supertrend’s bearish signal.
Market Structure Overview
In GNO/USD pair, a sideways market structure dominates on daily and weekly timeframes. Price is trading at $141.63 level, recording a %1.72 rise in the last 24 hours, moving in the $137.82 – $144.00 range. This range represents the latest swing points, and a breakout is awaited for a clear up or down trend definition. Market structure analysis defines uptrends with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), and downtrends with lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). The current sideways movement is trapped between the latest swing low $138.0350 (90/100 strength) and swing high $144.4764 (87/100 strength). Multi-timeframe (MTF) structure has 15 strong levels: 3 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 3S/2R on 3D, 3S/4R on 1W. This imbalance shows resistance strength and requires BOS (Break of Structure) for upside. RSI at 54.73 is neutral, MACD with negative histogram gives bearish warning. Overall outlook: Sideways trend, short-term bullish bias can be maintained as long as $138 support holds, but upside continuation remains weak without $144 breakout.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Upward Trend Signals
Uptrend is confirmed with successive higher highs and higher lows. In GNO, holding above the latest swing low $138.0350 has formed HL, price above EMA20 ($139.36) gives bullish short-term signal. This awaits $144.4764 breakout for potential HH. If price surpasses $144 and makes new HH, targets $149.6487 and $165.7500. MTF 1D bullish supports (3S) support this scenario. However, Supertrend bearish ($159.87 resistance) limits upside. For trend continuation, HH/HL sequence must complete without CHoCH (Change of Character).
Downward Trend Risk
Downtrend is defined by LH/LL. Risk of LH below latest swing high $144.4764. Supertrend bearish and MACD negative, $138.0350 breakout brings LL targeting $132.7154 (66/100) and $110.0600. Resistance weight on 1W and 3D (4R/1W) keeps downside risk high. $138 support breakout confirms downtrend as CHoCH and breaks structure.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
BOS are key breakouts that confirm or break the current structure. Upward BOS: Close above $144.4764 (87/100) forms HH and opens path to $149.6487 – this turns sideways structure into uptrend. Downward BOS: Close below $138.0350 (90/100) brings LL and initiates drop to $132.7154. These levels are derived from MTF, aligned with 1D/1W resistances/supports. Without BOS, sideways continues; volume important against fakeouts. Bullish target $180.8977 (22/100 low confidence), bearish $110.0600 (28/100).
Swing Points and Their Importance
Latest Swing Highs
Latest swing high $144.4764 (87/100), near resistance and BOS level – breakout brings upside momentum. $149.6487 (70/100) next test, $165.7500 extended resistance. If these highs form LH, it signals downside; protecting them is key for breakout.
Latest Swing Lows
$138.0350 (90/100) critical support, latest low and HL – holding here is bullish. $132.7154 (66/100) secondary support, $110.0600 deep drop target. These lows must be protected against LL; breakout breaks structure.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $88,949.99 in downtrend, up %1.05 but Supertrend bearish. Main supports $88,355 / $86,075 / $84,681; resistances $89,190 / $91,289 / $94,254. BTC dominance high, altcoins like GNO follow BTC moves – if BTC drops below $88k, GNO $138 BOS risk increases. BTC recovery (above $89k) can carry GNO to $144 breakout. Altcoin BTC correlation 80%+, caution: follow GNO spot GNO Spot Analysis and futures GNO Futures Analysis during BTC drops.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Sideways structure intact, $138-$144 range dominant. Upside scenario: $144 BOS starts HH/HL, EMA20 holds. Downside risk: $138 breakout brings LH/LL sequence. MTF imbalance expects volatility; monitor BOS levels. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic, HH/HL continuation signals trend, BOS/CHoCH signals change. No news, stay technical-focused. (Word count: ~1050)
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/gno-market-structure-january-28-2026-trend-analysis
