Supply determines survival: The global landscape of tin, antimony, tungsten, and molybdenum, and China's central role.

Author: Miscellaneous Talks on Seeing the Big Picture from Small Details

I was recently pressured into buying some minor metal stocks, and looking back, I have to say they were surprisingly good. We can't afford to get trapped before we start researching; we need to do our research before we get trapped. So, I'm starting a new series: metal and mineral research, to examine the market dynamics of various minor metals.

Sometimes I find short essays quite interesting. For example, a few days ago it was mentioned that the import of explosives in Wa State, Myanmar, increased, and then tin prices immediately dropped. This suggests a potential supply logic.

[Reminder: Fundamentals are just fundamentals; they should not be used to guide trading.]

The so-called minor metals are not necessarily minor, especially in the context of industrial transformation. Once there is a technological breakthrough, minor metals may very well become strategic metals.

For example, before becoming an "energy metal," lithium's market size was not large, and it was mainly used in glass ceramics, lubricating greases, and other fields. However, with the explosive growth of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries, lithium, as a core raw material for power batteries, has seen its demand and market size expand dramatically, fundamentally changing its status.

Magnesium is a relatively clear potential minor metal to be listed as a futures commodity. Currently, the global magnesium market size is around one million tons, mainly used in aluminum alloy additives, die castings, and other fields. In the future, if magnesium undergoes significant changes in lightweight materials (such as automobiles and aerospace) or batteries, leading to an order-of-magnitude increase in its production and consumption, it is entirely possible that it could be upgraded to a base metal or an independent category.

I have a vivid memory of a passage from the previous dialogue between Huaxia and Everbright Qiu regarding the market situation:

"Strategic minor metals, such as rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, nickel, and tin, will continue to be revalued in the future. The core logic is the global competitive landscape. Even if the Sino-US competition slows down in stages, the competitive attributes of strategic metals will only intensify in the long run. These metals must meet two conditions: either they must be highly scarce or their supply chains must be concentrated."

For example, the Democratic Republic of Congo is a major supplier of cobalt, and it uses cobalt supply as a key bargaining chip, making its pricing heavily influenced by political factors. Similarly, Indonesian nickel and tin are highly dependent on Indonesia globally, and their scarcity makes them likely to become core commodities in the next round of bargaining. These commodities are either currently at their bottom or their value has not yet been fully realized, offering significant potential for future revaluation.

The strong performance of non-ferrous metals this year, apart from macroeconomic factors related to funding, is largely due to the significant challenges posed to global supply chain security (especially the security of resource and mineral resources).

As early as 2016, China clearly defined its strategic mineral resource layout through top-level design: the State Council issued the "National Mineral Resources Plan (2016-2020)," which, with the core principle of "ensuring national economic security, national defense security, and the development needs of strategic emerging industries," officially included 24 minerals, including chromium, aluminum, nickel, tungsten, tin, antimony, cobalt, lithium, rare earth, zirconium, crystalline graphite, petroleum, natural gas, shale gas, coal, coalbed methane, uranium, gold, iron, molybdenum, copper, phosphorus, potash, and fluorite, in the list of strategic mineral resources. These include many core strategic metals, laying a solid foundation for resource security for the high-quality development of related industries.

China possesses both resource endowment and production capacity advantages in four mineral sectors: tungsten, antimony, tin, and molybdenum. These four minerals are China's four strategically advantageous minerals. Below is an examination of the supply of these four minerals.

I. Types of Tin Minerals on the Supply Side

The primary source of tin supply is cassiterite (SnO₂, tin oxide), the main form of tin found in nature, accounting for over 95% of global tin resources. Smaller quantities of sulfide ores such as stannite (Cu₂FeSnS₄) also exist, but their economic value is relatively low. Cassiterite is beneficiated to obtain tin concentrate, which is then refined into tin through pyrometallurgical or hydrometallurgical processes.

Data for 2025 has not yet been fully released, but due to the continued shutdown of Wa State, Myanmar's output is expected to further decline to below 20,000 tons, accounting for about 7% of the total. The top five producing countries account for 69% of the total, and the top eight countries account for 85%, indicating a highly concentrated supply.

The Wa State of Myanmar has a significant impact on the tin industry chain, primarily because:

1) Historically large supply volume: Before the production stoppage in August 2023, Myanmar's normal annual output was about 50,000-60,000 tons (accounting for 15-20% of the global total), of which Wa State accounted for more than 90% of Myanmar's total output, that is, an annual supply of about 45,000-54,000 tons. This volume is equivalent to 1/6 of the global supply, and the sudden production stoppage created a huge gap.

2) Crucial for China's tin exports: China is the world's largest producer of refined tin (accounting for 45% of global production), but its domestic mine resources are depleted, making it heavily reliant on imports. Myanmar was once China's largest source of tin ore imports, with approximately 36,000 metric tons of tin concentrate imported from Myanmar in 2022, accounting for 60-70% of China's total imports. The shutdown of tin production in Wa State directly led to a shortage of tin for Chinese smelters.

3) High uncertainty regarding resumption of production: Although Wa State began the resumption process in 2025, the actual progress was far below expectations due to multiple factors such as policy, equipment, and the rainy season. By the end of 2025, the average monthly export volume was only 2,000-3,000 physical tons (approximately 1,000-1,500 metal tons), far below the average monthly metal tons before the shutdown.

4) Amplifying the global supply-demand imbalance: The global tin market has long been in a state of tight supply and demand balance (reserve-to-purchase ratio of only 15 years), and any small fluctuations in any major supplying country will be amplified by the market. Wa State's "shutdown-slow resumption of production" process became the core driving factor for the continued rise in tin prices in 2024-2025.

Tin ore is rarely found alone; it is often found in association with various metallic and non-metallic minerals.

Deposits associated with intermediate-acidic granites: This is the most important type of tin deposit. In skarn-type deposits (such as the Shizhuyuan deposit in Hunan) and cassiterite-sulfide-type deposits (such as the Gejiu deposit in Yunnan and the Dachang deposit in Guangxi), tin is often closely associated with tungsten, molybdenum, bismuth, copper, lead, zinc, silver, etc., forming large-scale polymetallic fields. In pegmatite-type deposits, tin tends to be associated with rare elements such as niobium, tantalum, lithium, beryllium, rubidium, cesium, etc.

Placer tin deposits are formed from primary tin ore through weathering, transportation, and enrichment. In addition to cassiterite, placer deposits often contain a variety of heavy minerals such as native gold, wolframite, monazite, rutile, and xenotime, making their comprehensive utilization value quite considerable.

II. Types of Antimony Minerals on the Supply Side

The primary source of antimony is stibnite (Sb₂S₃, antimony sulfide), the most abundant natural antimony ore, accounting for over 80% of global antimony resources. Small amounts of secondary minerals such as antimony oxide (Sb₂O₃) also exist. Stibnite is beneficiated to obtain antimony concentrate, which is then smelted using pyrometallurgical or hydrometallurgical processes to produce metallic antimony or antimony compounds.

The top three producing countries (China, Tajikistan, and Russia) account for 86.6% of the total, indicating a highly concentrated supply. Although China accounts for more than half of the production, this is a significant decrease from 90% in 2010, mainly due to stricter environmental policies and resource depletion.

Associated formations of antimony ore:

Mainly found in low- to medium-temperature hydrothermal environments: The vast majority of economically valuable antimony deposits are formed under low- to medium-temperature hydrothermal conditions. In this environment, stibnite often precipitates together with minerals such as cinnabar (mercury), pyrite, and quartz, forming typical low-temperature hydrothermal deposits.

Different types of characteristic combinations: 1) In the famous Xikuangshan antimony mine in Hunan, stibnite is associated with pyrite, orpiment, realgar, cinnabar, calcite, quartz and other minerals; 2) When antimony mineralization is superimposed with gold or tungsten mineralization, it will form a more valuable complex deposit such as antimony-gold-tungsten.

III. Types of Tungsten Minerals on the Supply Side

The main sources of tungsten supply are scheelite (CaWO₄, calcium tungstate) and wolframite ((Fe,Mn)WO₄, ferromanganese tungstate), which are the two main natural ore forms of tungsten. Scheelite accounts for over 70% of global tungsten resources, while wolframite accounts for about 25-30%. Scheelite is mostly found in skarn-type deposits, while wolframite is mostly found in high-temperature hydrothermal quartz vein-type deposits. Both are beneficiated to obtain tungsten concentrate (WO₃ content ≥ 65%), which is then smelted using pyrometallurgical or hydrometallurgical processes to produce ammonium paratungstate (APT), tungsten oxide, or metallic tungsten.

Tungsten market supply structure:

1) China dominates supply, but growth is sluggish: China is not only the largest tungsten producer (accounting for 83% of the global total) but also possesses approximately 52% of the world's tungsten reserves. However, domestic tungsten mining is subject to strict total quantity control targets. Although the mining target for 2024 was set at 114,000 tons, the actual output was 127,000 tons, indicating that over-extraction has been effectively controlled. Meanwhile, long-term mining has led to the depletion of high-grade ore, resulting in a continuous decline in the grade of raw ore, thus constraining supply growth from the source.

2) Limited new overseas supply: In 2024, global tungsten production outside of China was approximately 14,000 metric tons of metal, with diverse sources. Significant new supply mainly came from projects such as the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, but this accounted for a small proportion of global supply and is unlikely to change the supply pattern dominated by China in the short term.

3) Recycled tungsten is an important supplement: In addition to raw ore, recycled waste tungsten (such as scrap cemented carbide) is also an important source of supply. Currently, about 35% of the global tungsten supply comes from recycled materials, but China's recycling rate and product quality still lag behind international advanced levels.

Associated formations of tungsten ore:

Quartz vein type and greisen type deposits: These deposits are usually associated with granite intrusions. They are rich in associated minerals, including cassiterite, molybdenite, bismuthite, beryl, topaz, and tourmaline, in addition to wolframite. They are mostly found in quartz veins in the top or nearby surrounding rocks of granite bodies.

Skarn-type deposits: These deposits form at the contact zone between intermediate-acidic intrusive rocks and carbonate rocks (such as limestone), and are dominated by scheelite. Their associated mineral assemblages differ from those of quartz vein types, often being closely associated with sulfides such as chalcopyrite, galena, and sphalerite, as well as molybdenite. The Shizhuyuan deposit in Chenzhou, Hunan Province, is a world-class example of this type, and is also rich in various resources including tungsten, tin, molybdenum, bismuth, beryllium, and fluorite.

IV. Types of Molybdenum Minerals on the Supply Side

The primary source of molybdenum is molybdenite (MoS₂, molybdenum disulfide), the most important and economically valuable molybdenum ore in nature. Molybdenite is often found in porphyry deposits alongside metals such as copper and tungsten. After beneficiation, the ore yields molybdenum concentrate (typically requiring a MoS₂ content ≥85%), which is then roasted or hydrometallurgically smelted to produce molybdenum oxide (industrial molybdenum oxide), ferromolybdenum, or ammonium molybdate, among other products, which are subsequently used in steel alloys and chemical industries.

The five largest producing countries (China, Peru, Chile, the United States, and Mexico) account for 91.9% of the total, indicating a highly concentrated supply. In 2024, global molybdenum reserves were approximately 15 million tons, with China holding 5.9 million tons (39.3%), resulting in a reserve-to-production ratio of approximately 57 years.

China holds a triple position in the molybdenum market: resources, production, and consumption.

1) Resource endowment advantage: China's molybdenum reserves account for nearly 40% of the global total (5.9 million tons in 2024), and are mainly primary molybdenum mines with large deposit scale and relatively high grade (such as the Luanchuan molybdenum mine with an average grade of about 0.1%), making its resource endowment superior to most countries.

2) Absolute dominance in production: China accounts for more than 42% of global molybdenum production and has maintained its position as the world's largest producer for many consecutive years. Unlike metals such as tin and antimony, China's molybdenum industry does not rely on imports, with a raw material self-sufficiency rate of over 90%. This is different from the tin market, where China relies on imports from Myanmar.

3) Complete industrial chain: China has a complete industrial chain from mining and beneficiation to smelting and deep processing (ferromolybdenum, molybdenum powder, molybdenum chemicals), and leading companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Jinduicheng Molybdenum have global competitiveness.

4) Consumer Market Center: China is also the world's largest consumer of molybdenum (consumption of about 130,000 tons in 2024, accounting for more than 45% of the global total), mainly used in steel alloys (accounting for more than 70% of consumption), forming a closed-loop system of self-production and self-sales.

5) A large portion of global molybdenum is a byproduct of copper mining: ore grades in many large porphyry copper mines are declining. Several major copper mines may reach the end of their mining life by the mid-2030s, which will constrain future molybdenum supply growth.

Associated formations of molybdenum ore:

Porphyry molybdenum/porphyry copper deposits: These are the most important types of molybdenum deposits in the world. In porphyry copper deposits (such as the Dexing Copper Mine), molybdenum (molybdenite) is closely associated with copper sulfides as a byproduct. In porphyry molybdenum deposits (such as Luanchuan in Henan and Jinduicheng in Shaanxi), molybdenum is the main product, but it is often accompanied by elements such as tungsten and rhenium.

Skarn-type deposits: These deposits form at the contact zone between intermediate-acidic intrusive rocks and carbonate rocks. Here, molybdenite is often closely associated with scheelite, forming a molybdenum-tungsten assemblage (such as the Shizhuyuan deposit in Hunan), and various metal sulfides may also be present.

Quartz vein type and greisen type deposits: These deposits are usually associated with granite. In wolframite-quartz veins, molybdenite is often associated with them, and bismuthite, arsenopyrite and other minerals may also be present.