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Key bitcoin price levels to watch as downwar
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Key bitcoin price levels to watch as downwar
Key bitcoin price levels to watch as downward pressure builds
Key bitcoin price levels to watch as downward pressure builds
As bitcoin remains in a downtrend, several technical and onchain levels stand out as critical areas of support.
By James Van Straten|Edited by Sheldon Reback
Jan 26, 2026, 10:15 a.m.
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True Market Mean Price (Glassnode)
What to know:
- The 100-week moving average at $87,145 remains the main line of defense.
- Below this, the cost basis of U.S. spot bitcoin ETF buyers at $84,099 has provided support during recent consolidation.
- A sustained break below $80,000 would likely open the door to a revisit of the April 2025 low near $76,000.
Bitcoin BTC$87.844,95 fell to as low as $86,000 when CME futures opened on Sunday after the weekend pause. It's since recovered slightly, though the market structure remains firmly in a downtrend.
This initial drop created a pricing gap extending as high as $89,265. A CME gap forms when bitcoin’s spot price moves while CME futures are closed. Historically, bitcoin has shown a tendency to revisit these gaps.
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Bitcoin last made an all time high on Oct. 6, 111 days ago, and is now down roughly 30% from that peak, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
A break below $80,000 would probably introduce a revisit of April 2025 levels, when bitcoin traded as low as $76,000 during the selloff linked to President Donald Trump’s tariff drive.
For now, the key level holding the market together is the 100-week moving average, which represents the average closing price over the that period and is often viewed as a long-term structural support. Since the local bottom on Nov. 21 at $80,000, the price has consistently held this level, which is currently near $87,145.
Bitcoin has already dropped below the 50-day moving average of just over $90,000. This indicator is commonly used to gauge short-term trend direction.
Below current levels, several notable support zones emerge. The Difficulty Regression Model, an estimate of bitcoin’s average production cost based on mining difficulty, sits near $89,300. Historically, commodities tend to gravitate toward or trade below their production cost during bear markets.
Further down, the aggregate cost basis of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund buyers is $84,099, a level that has acted as support for several months. Onchain data shows the 2024 average exchange withdrawal price, effectively the cost basis of 2024 buyers, at $82,713.
Finally, the True Market Mean Price, calculated using Investor Cap divided by Active Supply, sits just above $80,000, aligning closely with the November low and reinforcing its importance as a potential mean-reversion level.
Bitcoin NewsTechnical Analysismoving average
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