Bitcoin Price Outlook: Boring Price Action, Meaningful Signals

Despite recent volatility, multiple indicators point to normalization rather than stress – a dynamic that has historically preceded longer-term trend continuation rather than breakdowns.

Key Takeaways

• Short-term holder supply appears to have peaked, signaling a shift toward longer-term ownership
• MVRV Z-Score places Bitcoin in a historically “normal” valuation zone
• Price has spent around 455 days at current valuation levels, the second-longest stretch on record

Short-Term Holder Supply Peaks as Ownership Shifts

According to on-chain analyst Joao Wedson, the supply held by short-term Bitcoin holders appears to have peaked around current price levels. This is a notable development, as it often marks a handover phase where speculative holders gradually transition into longer-term ownership.

As this shift unfolds, the incentive to sell weakens. Coins begin moving into wallets with lower turnover rates, reducing immediate sell pressure and contributing to price stabilization. Historically, this pattern tends to emerge during periods of sideways price action rather than sharp rallies or capitulations.

Wedson notes that as prices pull back or stagnate, conviction-driven accumulation typically increases, laying groundwork for a more resilient holder base over time.

MVRV Z-Score Signals a “Statistically Normal” Market

From a valuation standpoint, data from On-Chain Mind shows Bitcoin currently sits within one of the most common historical valuation zones on the MVRV Z-Score Distribution.

The current Z-Score is hovering around 1.18, placing Bitcoin in the second most frequently observed valuation range across its entire trading history. Price has now spent roughly 455 days within this zone, making it the second-longest stretch ever recorded at these levels.

In practical terms, this suggests the market is neither overheated nor deeply undervalued. While price action may feel uncomfortable on a day-to-day basis, statistically it remains well within historical norms.

Price Structure Shows Fatigue, Not Breakdown

From a technical perspective, analyst Merlijn The Trader points to a multi-phase structure forming on higher timeframes. The pattern reflects a sequence of lower highs, followed by a reset phase marked by absorption and base-building.

Rather than signaling weakness, this behavior often indicates that excess leverage and speculative positioning are being flushed out. Liquidity conditions and structure repair, not sentiment alone, tend to determine when price begins its next directional move.

Merlijn emphasizes that Bitcoin does not rally on belief alone – it rallies when structure stabilizes and liquidity returns to the market.

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Momentum Indicators Suggest Stabilization

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently trading near $89,200, showing limited directional momentum. The Relative Strength Index sits just above 40, recovering modestly from oversold territory but still well below levels associated with trend acceleration.

Meanwhile, the MACD remains negative but is showing early signs of flattening, suggesting bearish momentum may be weakening rather than intensifying. Volume spikes during recent sell-offs indicate active participation, but follow-through has been limited, reinforcing the idea of absorption rather than panic.

Together, these indicators align with a consolidation environment rather than a trending one.

What This Means for the Market

Taken together, the data paints a picture of a Bitcoin market in transition. Short-term speculation is cooling, long-term ownership is strengthening, and valuation metrics remain historically neutral. While price remains range-bound, structural signals suggest the market may be quietly rebuilding rather than rolling over.

A decisive move higher will likely depend on improved liquidity conditions and a confirmed structural breakout, rather than sentiment-driven rallies alone.

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The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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