Palantir (PLTR) Stock: Why This Analyst Sees 25% Upside in 2025

TLDR

• Phillip Securities starts coverage on Palantir with Buy rating and $208 price target, indicating 25% upside potential
• Revenue projected to jump 47% to $4.2 billion in FY25, with commercial segment growing 51% year-over-year
• Net profit expected to nearly double in FY25 due to improved operational scale and higher-value contracts
• U.S. market driving growth with 66% year-over-year expansion expected, representing 66% of total revenue
• U.S. commercial deal values doubled in Q3 FY25, showing strong AI platform adoption

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Phillip Securities analyst Alif Fahmi launched coverage on Palantir Technologies with a Buy rating and $208 price target. The target represents a 25% gain from current trading levels.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

The analyst sees accelerating growth ahead. Rising AI platform adoption and strong U.S. demand are the main catalysts.

Fahmi forecasts revenue will climb 47% year-over-year to $4.2 billion in fiscal 2025. The commercial business is expected to lead this growth.

Commercial revenue should increase 51%, outpacing government revenue growth of 43%. This marks a shift as enterprises embrace AI tools.

The company is expanding beyond defense into broader industry applications. This diversification is fueling the commercial segment’s faster growth rate.

U.S. commercial deal sizes roughly doubled in the third quarter of fiscal 2025. This demonstrates strong momentum in the AI business.

Profit Margins Set to Expand

Net profit is forecast to nearly double in FY25. Better operational scale is driving this improvement.

A shift toward higher-value contracts is also boosting profitability. These deals typically carry better margins.

The U.S. market remains the primary revenue driver. It accounts for approximately 66% of total sales.

Fahmi expects U.S. revenue to surge 66% year-over-year in FY25. Both government and commercial segments are contributing.

Government demand is rising due to global tensions. U.S. intelligence spending is also increasing.

The commercial business is accelerating at the same time. Strong AI platform uptake is fueling this expansion.

Valuation and Analyst Sentiment

The stock trades at 170 times forward price-to-earnings as of January 16, 2026. This sits below the negative one standard deviation level of 190.

Fahmi acknowledges the elevated valuation. However, he believes strong growth justifies room for further gains.

The firm used a DCF model for the $208 target. They assumed an 8.3% weighted average cost of capital and 8% terminal growth rate.

On TipRanks, the stock carries a Hold consensus rating. Six analysts rate it Buy, 10 say Hold, and two recommend Sell.

The average analyst price target stands at $193.76. This implies 17.20% upside from current levels.

The company recently renewed its three-year contract with France’s DGSI intelligence agency. This partnership began nearly a decade ago.

Palantir also expanded its strategic partnership with HD Hyundai in Korea. This represents the largest collaboration in the region and will boost Foundry and AI Platform adoption across HD Hyundai business units.

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