DOT is trading at a critical juncture at $1.93. Although the short-term downtrend dominates, the RSI being in the neutral zone and strong support levels make both scenarios possible; traders should closely monitor resistance breaks and support tests.
Current Market Situation
Polkadot (DOT) is trading at $1.93 as of January 23, 2026, and has experienced a $1.43 decline in the last 24 hours. The price is stuck in the $1.91-$1.98 range, with trading volume remaining at a moderate $91.80M level. The overall trend is downward; the price is trading below EMA20 ($2.03), MACD shows a negative histogram, and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bear signal, highlighting the $2.34 resistance. RSI at 43.02 is in the neutral zone, with no oversold conditions. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 14 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/5 resistances on 1D, 2 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports/4 resistances on 1W, predominantly. This structure indicates the need to clear resistances for upward movement and tests of supports below. There are no major DOT-specific news in the market, but general altcoin weakness prevails.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How Does This Scenario Occur?
The bullish scenario is triggered by the price first breaking the $1.9693 resistance (70/100 score) with increased volume and reaching $2.0553 (70/100). This breakout confirms the short-term trend reversal by carrying the price above EMA20 ($2.03). The Supertrend turning to a bull signal and the MACD histogram crossing above the zero line become critical confirmations. RSI rising above 50 strengthens the momentum. Breaking the 1W resistances around $2.34 in MTF initiates a broader rally. This scenario is supported by stability or rise in BTC; probability increases if volume rises to $100M+. Cancellation level: Break below the $1.9052 support (75/100) on close.
Target Levels
First target $2.0553, followed by Supertrend resistance $2.34 and MTF strong level $2.8148 (31 score). This move offers up to 45% upside potential. In the longer term, 1W targets may extend to the $3.00+ range, but pullback risks should be considered at each step. Access detailed charts from DOT Spot Analysis and DOT Futures Analysis pages.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario begins with a high-volume break of the $1.9052 support (75/100 score); this reinforces the short-term downtrend. MACD becoming more negative and RSI falling below 40 direct momentum downward. Distance from EMA20 and Supertrend maintaining its bear signal are triggers. A break of BTC’s $88,426 support increases pressure on altcoins. Declining volume or general market risk-off mode (e.g., macro data) heightens risks. In MTF, sequential testing of 1D/1W supports creates a chain reaction. Cancellation level: Break above the $1.9693 resistance on close.
Protection Levels
First protection at $1.6530 (68/100 score), followed by deep target $1.1416 (22 score) should be monitored. These levels carry 25-40% downside risk. Holding at 3D/1W supports delays the rally, but breaks may trigger panic selling. Compare spot and futures market differences with DOT Spot and Futures.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Key triggers: Above, $1.9693/2.0553 breaks (4H close + volume), below, $1.9052 break (daily close below). Confirmation signals: RSI>50 (bull), <40 (bear); MACD zero crossover and Supertrend flips. Volume profile is critical: Above $120M+ for upside, low-volume break for downside is weak signal. Pivot level around $1.93; bull bias above, bear pressure increases below. Traders should manage risk in every scenario using stop-losses (bull at $1.90, bear at $2.00).
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $89,048 is in a downtrend (1.14% loss), Supertrend giving bear signal. DOT is highly correlated with BTC (0.85+); if BTC breaks $88,426 support, DOT below $1.90 accelerates. Conversely, if BTC breaks $90,370 resistance ($92,306 target), DOT bullish scenario strengthens. Rising BTC dominance delays altcoin rotation; $84,681 BTC support is critical ground for DOT. Prioritize monitoring BTC movements.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
Both scenarios are open for DOT; $1.9052-$1.9693 range is the decision point. Monitoring list: 1) Daily closes at key levels, 2) Volume changes, 3) BTC $88K-$90K range, 4) RSI/MACD divergences. This analysis provides traders with a tool to make their own decisions; the market is dynamic, follow regular updates. Use links for DOT Spot and Futures. Calculate risk/reward ratio (current ~1:1.5) for every trade.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/will-dot-rise-or-fall-january-23-2026-scenario-analysis
