Monero (XMR), while maintaining its leadership position among privacy-focused coins, reached the $533.88 level with a strong 4.95% jump in the last 24 hours, but the overall downtrend structure remains intact. This move provides positioning above short-term EMAs, but with RSI at 38.32 approaching the oversold region, testing critical supports seems inevitable.
Market Outlook and Current Situation
XMR traded in the $493.94 – $535.72 range on the daily timeframe, experiencing a volatile session supported by $173.28M in volume. The overall trend is confirmed as downtrend; the price is trapped in a clear descending channel on higher timeframes (3D and 1W). The 4.95% rise over the last 24 hours is likely driven by short-term short squeezes, but the sustainability of this momentum is questionable. Combined with uncertainty in the broader crypto ecosystem, while XMR’s privacy narrative continues to attract investor interest, macro pressures are dominating.
In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 9 strong levels were identified: 4 supports and 2 resistances on 1D, 3 supports/resistances each on 3D, and 4 supports and 3 resistances on 1W. This distribution strengthens the downward bias. The volume increase indicates buyers establishing a temporary defense line, but the Supertrend indicator’s bearish signal points to $145.76 resistance. Investors can follow detailed data from the XMR Spot Analysis page.
In the overall market context, XMR’s price is trading well above EMA20 ($130.53), which is a short-term bullish signal, but it continues to remain below longer-term EMAs. This divergence serves as a warning before a potential trend change; however, optimism is premature without a break above the upper band of the downtrend channel.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
Support Zones
The strongest support is positioned at $117.5842 (score: 80/100); this level shows MTF confluence on 1D and 1W timeframes and is a region that has held multiple times in the past. Below it lie $109.5542 (69/100) and $100.4000 (71/100), which particularly overlap with the lower band of the 3D downtrend channel. If the price corrects from $533 to these levels, defense is expected with increased volume; however, a breakdown could trigger panic selling. These supports are critical watch points for XMR bottom hunters.
Resistance Barriers
Among resistances, $131.1706 (76/100) leads; this level combines with Supertrend resistance ($145.76) to form a strong ceiling. Immediately below it, $119.3508 (71/100) aligns with the short-term EMA20. Daily candle closes failing to surpass these resistances confirm bearish momentum. For an upward breakout, holding above the $535.72 intraday high is essential; otherwise, rejections and support tests will remain on the agenda.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI at 38.32 is ranging in the neutral-bearish zone, approaching oversold (below 30) which carries short-term bounce potential, but no divergence. MACD shows a negative histogram and bearish crossover below the signal line; this indicates momentum favoring sellers. Combined with the Supertrend bearish signal, trend strength is measured downward. Short-term EMAs (price above EMA20 $130.53) create bullish divergence, but staying below 50 and 200 EMAs preserves the downtrend.
In MTF analysis, 1W Supertrend is bearish with compression within the channel; on 3D, a descending triangle formation is nearing completion. Looking at the volume profile, volume on upsides cannot match downside volume, signaling weak buyer interest. Overall, momentum indicators support rejection and correction scenarios, but the low RSI level could create tactical long opportunities. For detailed futures trading, XMR Futures Analysis is recommended.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
Bullish target $180.7000 (score:28) appears low probability, while bearish $60.2500 (score:21) is a more realistic scenario; from the current $533 level to the bearish target, the R/R ratio points to approximately 1:8, creating a high-risk short bias. Conversely, in a bullish breakout, rise to $180 offers R/R around 1:2. Risks include BTC downtrend and low volume at the forefront; with high volatility, stop-loss is mandatory. Outlook is bearish weighted: Support hold could bring a bounce, breakdown may lead to deep decline. For a balanced portfolio, wait for MTF confluence.
To balance potential scenarios, on the positive side, softening in privacy regulations could support XMR; on the negative, general altcoin bleeding creates pressure. Trading outlook is cautious: Short-term longs from supports, shorts from resistance rejections. Always apply your own risk management.
Bitcoin Correlation
As an altcoin showing high correlation with BTC (%0.85+), XMR is directly affected by Bitcoin’s downtrend. With BTC weakening by 0.76% at $89,506, the Supertrend bearish signal is a red alert for altcoins. If BTC supports at $88,379, $86,722, and $84,681 break, chain reaction selling will trigger in XMR; if resistances at $90,252, $92,238, and $94,276 are surpassed, relief may come. BTC dominance increase crushes XMR, while altseason signals have delayed impact – caution mode dominates for now.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xmr-market-commentary-january-23-2026-critical-support-test-and-bearish-momentum
