Current market structure is weak with LH/LL pattern indicating downtrend; BOS above $0.6232 could trigger structural change.
Market Structure Overview
As of January 22, 2026, ASTER’s market structure is clearly trending in a downtrend. While price consolidates at the $0.61 level, it showed a %0.82 drop in the last 24 hours and remained in the $0.60-$0.63 range. This confirms a bearish structure dominated by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern. Staying below short-term EMA20 ($0.69), combined with Supertrend’s bearish signal, clearly reveals structural weakness. RSI at 33.63 is approaching the oversold region, while MACD’s negative histogram supports downside momentum. MTF analysis (1D/3D/1W) detects 8 strong levels: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, 1S/3R on 1W. This indicates the overall structure is downside-focused, but could change with a breakdown below $0.5953 or breakout above $0.6232. The market maintains LH/LL bearish character instead of HH/HL bullish structure; this is confirmed by swing points systematically renewing at lower levels.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern is required for an uptrend, but this is not observed in ASTER. The latest swing high at $0.6232 (71/100 score) forms an LH as it stays below the previous $0.6626. Price breaking above EMA20 ($0.69) and $0.6626 with BOS could initiate an HL pattern. Supertrend gives bearish signal until bullish reversal; RSI at 33.63 offers rebound potential, but MACD is bearish. Bullish continuation target $0.9274 (30 score) is distant; this scenario requires a close above $0.6232 first.
Downtrend Risk
Downtrend confirmed with LH/LL: Latest swing low $0.5953 (65/100), above previous $0.5500 (77/100) but overall structure preserves LLs. If $0.6232 LH holds, price could drop below $0.5953 to form new LL. BTC’s downtrend (Supertrend bearish) increases risk for altcoins. Bearish breakdown target $0.2813 (22 score); BOS below $0.5500 accelerates it. This pattern signals continuation rather than trend reversal.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
BOS confirms trend change by breaking market structure. Bullish BOS: Close above $0.6232 (71/100) swing high invalidates LH and opens path to HL; then targets $0.6626. This aligns with EMA20 ($0.69). Bearish BOS: Break below $0.5953 (65/100) swing low forms new LL and leads to test of $0.5500 (77/100). MTF shows high 1W resistance score (3R), but 1D supports are critical. For CHoCH (Change of Character), watch bullish $0.77 Supertrend resistance, bearish below $0.5500. These levels invalidate structure: Upper BOS preserves uptrend, lower BOS deepens reversal. Follow these BOS levels in ASTER Spot Analysis and ASTER Futures Analysis.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Latest Swing Highs
$0.6232 (71/100): Short-term LH acting as resistance; breakout signals HH reversal. $0.6626 (69/100): Medium-term resistance aligned with MTF 1W; BOS here provides strong confirmation. These points act as ceilings limiting downtrend; staying below sustains LH/LL.
Latest Swing Lows
$0.5953 (65/100): Near support, base of current range; break accelerates bearish momentum. $0.5500 (77/100): Strong MTF support, LL test point; hold here offers HL hope. These swings define structural bases; defense leads to trend continuation, break brings reversal.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $89,200 (%-0.84) in downtrend, Supertrend bearish. Key supports $88,355 / $86,699 / $84,681; resistances $89,396 / $91,149. As BTC dominance rises, altcoins under pressure; ASTER positively correlated with BTC, BTC drop below $88,355 could accelerate ASTER break below $0.5953. BTC rally above $91,149 could trigger ASTER BOS above $0.6232. BTC downside risk weakens ASTER structure with LH/LL; monitor closely.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
ASTER structure dominated by downtrend (LH/LL); $0.61 consolidation awaits breakout. Bullish scenario starts HL with $0.6232 BOS, target $0.9274. Bearish below $0.5953 to $0.5500/$0.2813. MTF levels support structure, but BOS required for CHoCH. Educational note: HH/HL for upside momentum, LH/LL for downside; current LH/LL consistently bearish. Market volatile, follow spot and futures. (Word count: ~1050)
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/aster-market-structure-january-22-2026-trend-analysis
