In brief
- New whales hold $130 billion worth of Bitcoin, outpacing old ‘OG’ whales’ $126 billion.
- Bitcoin’s choppy regime is a result of shifting supply dynamics between the old and new whales and the struggle among new whale cohorts.
- Macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook has improved, but the internal whale supply conflict remains the dominant force impacting Bitcoin’s market structure.
Bitcoin’s large holder composition is undergoing a fundamental shift as demand from deep-pocketed new entrants promises to reshape power dynamics.
The new whale cohort, including corporations like MicroStrategy and Twenty One Capital, isn’t composed of early adopters, but of institutional investors whose collective actions are creating unprecedented market pressure.
“We do not want the market to think and price us just as a treasury asset. That is not us at all. We are going to acquire as much Bitcoin as we possibly can,” Twenty One Capital CEO Jack Mallers said in an interview with CNBC in December.
Data confirms the significant scale of these new buyers, with Twenty One Capital holding 43,514 BTC worth $3.91 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries, making it the third-largest corporate holder.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products have amassed $116.59 billion worth of Bitcoin, representing 6.5% of its $1.8 trillion market capitalization, reflecting the unprecedented scale of capital deployment these investors have.
By one key metric, the newcomers have already overtaken the old guard. Investors holding over 1,000 BTC for less than 155 days, categorized as “new whales,” now control $130 billion worth of Bitcoin, outpacing “old whales” at $126 billion, according to CryptoQuant.
While demand is massive, the new cohort’s average cost basis is near $98,000. With Bitcoin trading around $90,000, these holdings carry roughly $6 billion in unrealized losses concentrated among those large, new investors.
Tug-of-war
Strategic accumulators like MicroStrategy see dips as buying opportunities. Yet, the sheer size of these underwater positions means other whales within the same cohort may become pressured sellers, creating distribution against bullish convictions.
“The market is currently in a brutal period of chip exchange and confidence testing,” Allen Ding, head of research at Bitfire, told Decrypt. “This is not just a game of long versus short, but an intergenerational transfer of chips with liquidity migrating from ‘weak new whales’ or speculators and ‘profit-taking old whales’ into the hands of ‘strong new whales’ or strategic institutions.”
Their presence is altering market structure, resulting in the ongoing crypto market chop, according to Ding. “This type of capital belongs to a ‘pure long-only’ allocation strategy and typically avoids short-term stop-loss mechanisms, exhibiting a natural price insensitivity even amid market fluctuations,” the analyst explained.
The market now has “unprecedented psychological anchors and liquidity resilience” due to these “price-insensitive” long-term buyers, he added, noting that until this absorption and supply digestion of the redistributed supply is complete, Bitcoin will continue to range.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have also contributed to the market’s sideways trend. However, U.S. President Donald Trump’s TruthSocial post yesterday provided some much-needed relief.
Trump said he would not impose tariffs scheduled for February 1 against eight European nations, stating that he had a “very productive meeting” with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte over Greenland.
The meeting established “the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region,” the post read, adding that a team, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would handle further negotiations.
Bitcoin surged nearly 3% from $87,653 to an intraday high of $90,240 in the late New York trading session on Wednesday, according to CoinGecko, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations.
Still, the fundamental tug-of-war within the new whale cohort remains the dominant market force.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/355391/new-bitcoin-whales-outpace-old-guard-6b-supply
