XMR, despite the general downtrend, holding above short-term EMA20 at the $514.37 level in search of light. RSI at 38.32 near oversold, but a risky picture prevails with bearish MACD signals. Critical supports in the $117-$109 band, resistance to be tested at $131; BTC downtrend creating pressure on altcoins.
Executive Summary
XMR, as of January 22, 2026, shows a 1.27% rise at $514.37 price, but the super long-term downtrend continues. Although price above EMA20 ($130.53) gives a bullish short-term signal, momentum is weak with RSI 38.32 and bearish MACD. Support zones $117.58 (80/100), $100.40 (71/100) critical; resistance $131.17 (76/100). Volume at $330M medium level, BTC downtrend (around $90K) providing negative correlation against altcoins. Risk/reward ratio favors bearish target $60.25; for long positions, $131 breakout should be awaited.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
XMR’s dominant trend is in a clear down structure: lower highs and lower lows formation continues on daily and weekly charts. Supertrend indicator in bearish mode pointing to $145.76 resistance level, showing it limits upward movements. However, closes above short-term (4H) EMA20 ($130.53) signal a local recovery. 24-hour range $480.40-$546.47 reflects volatility, but bearish bias preserved in overall structure. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) detects 9 strong levels: 1D with 4 supports/2 resistances, 3D with 3S/3R, 1W with 4S/3R balance. This indicates approaching the lower boundary of the down channel structurally, signaling potential bounce or breakdown risk.
Structural Levels
Main structural supports: $117.5842 (high score 80/100, daily low tests), $100.4000 (71/100, psychological and Fibonacci), $109.5542 (69/100, weekly support). Resistance zones: $131.1706 (76/100, EMA intersection), $119.3508 (71/100, local high). Relative to price at $514 level, these are in lower regions; supports continuation of long-term down channel (70% retracement from 2025 peaks). For upside breakout, close above $546.47 daily high required.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 38.32 level, approaching oversold region (below 30) offering short-term bounce potential, but bearish divergence observed (price local high, RSI lower). MACD histogram negative and below signal line, confirming bearish momentum. Stochastic %K %D crossover negative, Williams %R around -65 neutral-bearish. Momentum confluence generally reflects seller pressure, but RSI slowdown warns of potential buyer entry.
Trend Indicators
EMAs mixed: Price above EMA20 bullish short-term, but below EMA50/200 long-term bearish. Supertrend bearish, targeting $145.76 resistance. In Ichimoku cloud, price below cloud, Tenkan/Kijun death cross active. Parabolic SAR dots above, short signal. Trend indicators confluence: Short-term buy, medium/long-term sell.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports detailed: $117.5842 (80/100, multi-TF confluence, volume profile POC), $100.4000 (71/100, 0.618 Fib), $109.5542 (69/100, pivot). Resistance: $131.1706 (76/100, EMA21/50 intersection), $119.3508 (71/100, gap fill). Extended targets: Bullish $180.70 (28 score, low probability), bearish $60.25 (21 score). Price action: Rebound from $480 support, rejection at $546 resistance. These levels provide 1:2.5 RR for longs in % risk/reward calculation ($514 entry, $480 SL, $546 TP), shorts 1:3 ($514 entry, $546 SL, $117 TP).
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume $330.32M, medium level consistent with 1.27% rise, but declining volume in downtrend (OBV negative divergence) signals seller fatigue. Volume profile $480 POC support, $546 low volume node resistance. Delta volume negative, aggressive sellers dominant. Buy/sell walls: Buy wall formation possible at supports, volume increase critical for breakout confirmation. Overall participation low, open to speculative moves.
Risk Assessment
Risk/reward: High RR shorts to bearish target $60.25, short-term scalp to bullish $180. Main risks: BTC break below $90K (altcoin cascade), unexpected volume spike, macro factors (regulation as XMR privacy coin). Volatility 5%+, stop-loss mandatory. Position size: 1-2% account risk. Scenarios: 65% bearish (downtrend continues), 25% range ($480-$546), 10% bullish breakout. Detailed data for XMR Spot Analysis and XMR Futures Analysis.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $90,045.97 up 0.55%, but in downtrend ($89,914 support, $90,407 resistance). Supertrend bearish on BTC, negative impact on altcoins like XMR with 0.85% correlation: BTC drop below $88K could pull XMR to $400s. BTC levels to watch: Supports $89,914/$88,395 (XMR support confirmation), resistance $92,444 (alt rally). Dominance rise alt pressure, BTC stabilization allows XMR autonomous move ($131 test).
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
XMR technical chart shows bearish dominance: Downtrend, bearish MACD/RSI, low momentum. Short-term bounce above EMA20 possible to $131 resistance, breakout long catalyst; failure to $117 support. Volume increase and BTC stabilization required. Strategy: Short bias, $480 stop to $117 target; longs on breakout confirmation. Risk management priority, no news flow but privacy coin dynamics will add volatility. Full outlook: Cautious seller, watch local buyers.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xmr-comprehensive-technical-analysis-detailed-review-january-22-2026
