Downtrend dominant, but short-term recovery signals are being monitored – structure break critical.
Market Structure Overview
Bitcoin’s market structure, as of January 22, 2026, exhibits a clear downtrend. Current price positioned at $90,072 level, with a slight 1.10% rise observed in the last 24 hours, but overall structure characterized by LH/LL (Lower Highs and Lower Lows) pattern. This is confirmed by the formation of successive lower highs and lower lows at recent swing points. Trading below short-term EMA20 ($91,752) and Supertrend giving bearish signal reinforces structural weakness. In MTF (Multi-Timeframe) analysis, 13 strong levels detected in 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 support/3 resistance in 1D, 1 support/3 resistance in 3D, and 2 support/3 resistance balance in 1W. RSI at 45.25 in neutral zone, MACD showing negative histogram. Structure remains bearish until $91,054 swing high break; below it, test of $89,025 on the agenda.
Trend Analysis: Up or Down?
Uptrend Signals
For uptrend, HH/HL (Higher Highs and Higher Lows) pattern required. In current structure, recovery from last swing low $87,263 to $90,072 could form HL, but confirmation requires close above $91,054 and new HH ($92,466+). This break acts as BOS (Break of Structure) to initiate bullish trend. Short-term 1.10% rise and RSI ticking up from 45 promising, but invalid while below EMA20. 1W timeframe has more resistance (3R) pressure, so aggressive volume needed for upside.
Downtrend Risk
Downtrend strong with LH/LL: lower highs ($90,574 intraday high) and lows ($87,263) forming from last swing high $91,054. Close below $89,025 deepens LH/LL, opening path to $87,263 and $84,681. Supertrend resistance at $96,979 distant, MACD bearish. MTF shows resistance dominance (9R vs 6S) supporting downside. $70 bearish target requires $84,681 break as key.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Bullish BOS: daily close above $91,054 (score 68/100), shifts structure from LH/LL to HH/HL. This triggers tests of $92,466 (66/100) and $94,276 (63/100). Bearish BOS: close below $89,025 (78/100), accelerates drop to $87,263 (70/100) and $84,681 (61/100). These levels swing-based, strong with MTF confirmation. Trend continuation expected post-BOS; e.g., bullish BOS activates $105 target, bearish $70. Monitor volume and closes for CHoCH (Change of Character) – current $90,072 in neutral zone, break awaited. For spot trading, check BTC Spot Analysis; for futures, BTC Futures Analysis.
Swing Points and Importance
Recent Swing Highs
$91,054 (68/100): Main resistance, LH formation. Break opens door to HH. $92,466 (66/100): Second LH, near EMA20. $94,276 (63/100): 1D/3D intersection, strong R. These points preserve downtrend; short bias while below.
Recent Swing Lows
$89,025 (78/100): Near support, highest score. Hold critical for HL. $87,263 (70/100): Intraday low, 24h range bottom. $84,681 (61/100): 1W support, break triggers panic selling. These lows form LL chain; hold signals reversal.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall structure bearish LH/LL, $91,054 BOS awaited. Hold tests $89,025, break clarifies direction. MTF resistance surplus favors downside, but low-volume recovery warns of CHoCH. Structures dynamic; monitor daily. Educational note: Market structure determined by inter-swing relationships – HH/HL confirms uptrend, LH/LL downtrend via BOS.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/btc-market-structure-january-22-2026-trend-analysis
