Bitcoin stuck in range as Japan bond yields sap carry-trade liquidity

Rising Japanese bond yields and a fading yen carry trade tighten global liquidity, keeping Bitcoin range-bound while global M2 grows below past bull‑market thresholds.

Summary

• Japanese government bond yields hit multi-year highs, making domestic bonds more attractive and weakening the yen carry trade that funded risk assets.
• Global M2 is growing about 11.4% year-on-year, below the ~14% pace that aligned with stronger Bitcoin upside in prior cycles, limiting trend strength.​
• Crypto trades in choppy, range-bound patterns as investors slowly reallocate toward safer yields, not via a sudden liquidity shock.

Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing reduced momentum as rising Japanese government bond yields alter global capital flows and funding dynamics, according to market analysts.

Japanese government bond yields have climbed to levels not observed in several years, making domestic bond holdings more attractive to investors. The yield increase marks a shift from Japan’s prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates, which had established the country as a major source of low-cost capital for global markets.

Japan and rising bond yields suggest more uncertainty for crypto

The rising yields are reducing the appeal of the yen carry trade, a strategy in which investors borrow yen at low cost to invest in higher-returning assets elsewhere. As borrowing costs increase, investors are becoming more selective in their risk allocation, analysts said.

The shift in Japanese monetary conditions comes as global liquidity continues to expand, though at a measured pace. Global M2, a measure of cash and bank deposits across major economies, is growing at approximately 11.4% year-over-year, according to financial data. This growth rate remains below the roughly 14% level that has historically coincided with stronger Bitcoin (BTC) price expansions in previous market cycles.

Market observers note that while global money supply continues to rise, certain traditional funding channels are slowing. The combination of expanding liquidity and shifting capital preferences has created conditions where cryptocurrency prices are moving within ranges rather than experiencing sustained directional momentum.

The Japanese bond yield increase does not represent an abrupt withdrawal of capital but rather a gradual reallocation as investors reassess risk-return profiles across asset classes, according to market strategists. Higher yields on Japanese government bonds provide an alternative to riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies and equities.

The current environment has resulted in what traders describe as uneven trading patterns in cryptocurrency markets, with price movements lacking strong follow-through. This period of adjustment is occurring as the first month of 2026 concludes, with market participants monitoring both liquidity conditions and shifts in global funding dynamics.