Internet Computer (ICP) is consolidating around $3.68 while maintaining its upward trend; however, the pressure from Bitcoin’s downward trend is accelerating the approach to the critical $3.59 support. In this analysis, we evaluate ICP’s short-term direction based on 11 strong levels from MTF confluences and signals from momentum indicators.
Market Outlook and Current Situation
ICP has fallen to $3.68 with a 1.61% decline over the last 24 hours, yet the overall trend structure continues to remain upward. The 24-hour range occurred between $3.59-$3.88, while trading volume holds high at $159.27 million compared to previous days. Although this volume indicates the presence of market participants, Bitcoin’s 2.20% drop and general altcoin pressure are making ICP cautious in upward movements. On the long-term chart, we see ICP moving within the upward channel formed after the rise wave at the end of 2025; however, the recent horizontal consolidation signals that bulls are holding their breath waiting for resistance tests.
In the overall market, altcoins’ sensitivity dependent on Bitcoin dominance stands out as a key factor. Although ICP is supported by its own ecosystem developments in recent months (subnet expansions and dApp integrations), macro factors maintain their weight. The current price is positioned above EMA20 ($3.62), which gives a short-term bullish signal. Nevertheless, the Supertrend indicator’s bearish signal and the $4.92 resistance pose a major obstacle for upward movements. The increase in volume may indicate an accumulation phase before a potential breakout, but the lack of high downside volume shows no sudden panic selling.
In a Multi-timeframe (MTF) context, a total of 11 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/2 resistance on 1D, 1 support/4 resistance on 3D, and 3 support/4 resistance distribution on 1W. This confluence emphasizes that ICP is at an important crossroads and has initiated a period that investors should watch carefully.
Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
Support Zones
The most critical support level stands out at $3.5900 (score: 65/100); this level is fully aligned with the 24-hour low of 3.59 and forms a strong base on the 1D chart. This zone also connects to the 3 supports in the 1W timeframe in MTF confluence, meaning a rebound from here could retrigger the upward trend. If this support breaks, the 3.40-3.50 range in lower zones may come into play, but with current data, this scenario appears low probability because volume support is still positive.
Resistance Barriers
The first resistance is at $3.8562 (score: 70/100); this is the 24-hour high and a ceiling retested on 1D/3D charts. Above, $4.2000 (score: 67/100) stands as a stronger barrier, supported by Supertrend’s $4.92 bearish resistance. Above these levels represents the 4+4 resistance confluence in 3D and 1W in MTF. In case of breakout, it can gain momentum towards targets, but Bitcoin pressure may delay these tests.
Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength
RSI (52.77) is positioned in the neutral zone, giving neither overbought nor oversold signals; this shows that the consolidation is healthy and there is not sufficient momentum accumulation for a direction change in the near term. MACD has formed a bullish crossover with a positive histogram, supporting short-term buying pressure. Price above EMA20 (3.62) confirms the short-term trend is upward, but Supertrend’s bearish signal requires caution in the long-term trend.
Overall trend strength is being tested with the approach to the lower band of the rising channel. Bollinger Bands are contracting, signaling a squeeze before a volatility breakout. The volume oscillator also shows positive divergence; that is, despite price decline, volume increase implies growing buying interest. This combination strengthens the rebound scenario from supports, while momentum’s consolidation reveals it’s waiting for a trigger for sudden moves.
Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook
Bullish target $6.2555 (score: 26) offers approximately 70% upside potential from the current price of $3.68, while the bearish target $0.7071 (score: 22) carries an 81% downside risk. The risk/reward ratio approaches 1:3 in the bullish scenario if support holds, but can reverse in case of breakdown. Market outlook is positive as long as the $3.59 support holds; however, Bitcoin’s downtrend may trigger liquidity hunts in altcoins. For those following ICP Spot Analysis, long positions can be considered in these zones, and in futures trading, volatility management is critical for leveraged approaches with ICP Futures Analysis.
In the negative scenario, overall market risk is high; BTC dominance increase may pressure altcoins. On the positive side, ecosystem news or volume explosion could break the $4.20 resistance. Traders should minimize risk by placing stop-losses below support.
Bitcoin Correlation
ICP shows high correlation with Bitcoin (over +0.85 in recent weeks), negatively affected by BTC’s downtrend at its current level of $89,261. BTC’s main supports are $88,347, $86,552, and $84,681; falling below these could trigger broad selling waves in altcoins and push ICP rapidly to the $3.59 support. Conversely, if BTC surpasses resistance levels of $90,274, $92,496, and $94,276, ICP could strengthen its uptrend and head towards $4.20 targets. BTC Supertrend’s bearish signal makes caution mandatory for altcoins; although ICP can move independently, BTC dominance prevails.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/icp-january-21-2026-consolidation-in-the-uptrend-and-critical-level-tests
