NEAR Protocol is positioned at a critical equilibrium point at the $1.53 level. Although the downtrend dominates, the RSI around 40 and strong support/resistance levels across multiple timeframes make both bullish and bearish scenarios possible. Traders should be prepared for both directions and closely monitor triggering signals.
Current Market Situation
NEAR is trading at $1.53 with a 0.84% decline over the last 24 hours (range: $1.49-$1.57, volume: $164.50M). The overall trend is downward; the price remains below EMA20 ($1.66). RSI at 39.95 is in the neutral-bearish zone with no oversold signal. The MACD histogram is negative and showing a bearish crossover, while Supertrend gives a bearish signal, highlighting $1.85 resistance.
Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identifies 9 strong levels across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1D (2S/3R), 3D (1S/2R), 1W (2S/2R). Critical supports at $1.4050 (score 70/100) and $1.5048 (64/100); resistances at $1.6028 (70/100), $2.2979 (62/100), and $1.5283 (60/100). These levels stand out as pivot points that will determine market direction. Consolidation is observed alongside declining volume, with increased volatility expected.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How Does This Scenario Occur?
The bullish scenario is triggered primarily by a volume-backed break above the nearby resistance around $1.5283. Then, the main resistance at $1.6028 is tested; a close above it confirms the short-term trend reversal by surpassing EMA20 ($1.66). Positive divergence in RSI or a move above 50, along with the MACD histogram approaching zero, would be supportive. Supertrend flipping from bearish to bullish (above $1.85) provides strong confirmation. If bullish alignment forms in MTF on 1D and 3D, momentum shifts to buyers. Monitor for 20%+ volume increase and green candle formations (hammer/doji reversal).
Target Levels
First target $1.85 (Supertrend resistance), second $2.2979 (weekly resistance, score 62/100). More aggressive targets could reach $2.50+ based on Fibonacci extensions. Invalidation of this scenario: close below $1.5048 support (approx. 4% risk). Risk/reward ratio calculable at around 1:3 from current levels ($0.77 gain/$0.25 risk).
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario begins with a close below $1.5048 support; if broken, $1.4050 (score 70/100) is tested. New bearish divergence in MACD or histogram expansion triggers RSI drop below 30. Distance from EMA20 and Supertrend gaining downward momentum (below $1.49) increases sell-side pressure. Volume spikes (red candles) and death cross formation (EMA20-EMA50) heighten risks. If bearish continuation forms in MTF on 1W (2S level), the overall downtrend strengthens. Bitcoin correlation could also exert downward influence.
Protection Levels
First protection below $1.4050 around $1.20 intermediate support, main target $0.9208 (long-term bearish target, score 22/100). Deeper declines monitor the psychological $0.80 level. Invalidation of this scenario: close above $1.6028 resistance (5%+ upside). Risk/reward ratio around 1:2.5 ($0.61 loss/$0.25 reward inversely).
Which Scenario to Watch?
Main triggers: Volume profile (200M+ for bullish, spike for bearish), RSI divergences, and candle closes. The $1.5283-$1.5048 range is ‘no-man’s land’; breakout direction here is decisive. Trendline breaks on daily/4H charts (bull: above $1.57, bear: below $1.49) provide confirmation. Volatility index (BVOL) increase can accelerate both scenarios. Traders should place stop-losses 1-2% beyond key levels to prepare for any eventuality. Leverage strategies can be reviewed on the NEAR Spot Analysis and NEAR Futures Analysis pages.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $89,443 with 1.70% decline in downtrend; Supertrend bearish. NEAR shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); if BTC breaks $88,368 support, general pressure on altcoins increases ($1.40 NEAR test). Conversely, BTC rising to $91,010 resistance supports NEAR bullish scenario ($1.85 target). BTC dominance rise (currently neutral) poses risk for alts; $86,594 BTC support is critical – breakdown could pull NEAR to $1.20. Prioritize monitoring BTC movements.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
NEAR likely to consolidate around $1.50 until equilibrium breaks; both scenarios equally probable. Watchlist: 1) $1.5283/$1.5048 breakouts, 2) Volume/RSI/MACD divergences, 3) BTC $88K-$91K range, 4) MTF alignment. Daily closes and news flow (protocol updates) will determine direction. Apply your own risk management and diversify your market analysis.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/near-rise-or-fall-january-21-2026-scenario-analysis
