United Airlines (UAL) Stock: Q4 Earnings Beat Sends Shares Higher

TLDR

• United Airlines reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $3.10 per share on record revenue of $15.4 billion, beating Wall Street expectations
• Full-year 2025 adjusted earnings reached $10.62 per share with revenue of $59.07 billion, both surpassing forecasts
• Premium revenue grew 9% in Q4 and loyalty revenue jumped 10% during the quarter
• The company expects 2026 earnings between $12 and $14 per share, guiding Q1 earnings at $1.00 to $1.50 per share
• Shares rose 4% in after-hours trading despite closing down 4.3% at $108.57 in regular trading

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United Airlines delivered strong fourth-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations. The carrier posted adjusted earnings of $3.10 per share on revenue of $15.4 billion.

Wall Street had anticipated adjusted earnings of $2.93 per share on the same revenue figure. The quarterly revenue marked the highest in United’s history.

For the full year 2025, the airline reported adjusted earnings of $10.62 per share. Analysts expected $10.57 per share.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., UAL

Annual revenue reached $59.07 billion, slightly above the $59.05 billion forecast. This represented a 3.5% increase and set another company record.

The stock jumped 3.4% in after-hours trading. During regular hours, shares fell 4.3% to close at $108.57.

The airline flew an average of 496,000 passengers daily in 2025. It operated the largest mainline schedule in company history.

Premium customers drove strong performance. Premium revenue increased 9% in the fourth quarter and 11% for the full year.

Loyalty revenue grew 10% in Q4 and 9% for the full year. Basic economy revenue rose 7% in the quarter and 5% annually.

2026 Outlook and Operations

United provided guidance for 2026 that met investor expectations. The company forecasts first-quarter earnings between $1.00 and $1.50 per share.

Full-year 2026 earnings are expected to range from $12 to $14 per share. Analysts had predicted $1.13 for Q1 and $13.19 for the full year.

The carrier plans to take delivery of more than 120 aircraft in 2026. This includes over 100 narrowbody planes and approximately 20 Boeing 787 aircraft.

The widebody deliveries will mark the most for any U.S. passenger airline in a single year since 1988. The company is also upgrading facilities at its Washington Dulles and Houston hubs.

United canceled flights at the lowest per-seat rate among large U.S. network carriers in 2025. The airline flew 181 million passengers throughout the year.

Recent Performance and Challenges

The fourth quarter faced headwinds from a 43-day federal government shutdown. United offered full refunds to all customers, even those whose flights weren’t canceled.

The customer-friendly policies and promotional efforts boosted November results. However, the shutdown impact combined with booking disruptions and costs led to an approximately $250 million hit to pre-tax earnings.

CEO Scott Kirby attributed the results to winning brand-loyal customers. He noted that revenue momentum continues into 2026.

The week ending January 4 set a record for flown revenue in company history. The week ending January 11 marked the highest ticketing week and highest business sales week ever recorded.

UBS analyst Atul Maheswari maintains a Buy rating with a $145 price target. This implies 27.6% upside from the $113.50 price where shares traded on Friday’s close.

Maheswari believes United’s leverage to corporate and premium customers has produced favorable first-quarter trends. He expects the carrier to beat consensus estimates.

United shares are down 2.9% year-to-date but up 1.1% over the past 12 months. The company will discuss its results during a conference call at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.

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