ZEC is stuck in a critical contraction zone around $360. Although the short-term downtrend dominates, oversold signals on RSI and strong support levels keep the bullish scenario alive, while MACD bearish momentum and Bitcoin’s weakness increase the downside risk. Both scenarios carry equal probability based on market structure; traders should monitor trigger levels and adjust their positions accordingly.
Current Market Situation
As of January 21, 2026, ZEC is trading at $360.36 and has stayed within the $342.01 – $370.31 range with a 0.49% decline over the last 24 hours. Volume is relatively high at $906.22M but the trend is downward. RSI is at 37.78 approaching the oversold zone, MACD shows a negative histogram, and the price remains below EMA20 ($412.06$); this confirms short-term bearish pressure. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and resistance stands out at $465.78.
In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 13 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1D has 2 supports/3 resistances, 3D has 2S/1R, and 1W has 3S/3R balance. Key supports are $352.51 (score 68/100) and $307.50 (64/100); resistances are $402.08 (72/100), $364.91 (65/100), and $534.56 (61/100). This structure shows the price consolidating in a tight triangle, with a breakout possible in either direction.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How This Scenario Plays Out?
For the bullish scenario, it must first hold above the $352.51 support and break the local resistance in the $364.91 – $370 range. This breakout should be confirmed by increased volume and positive divergence on RSI (RSI making higher lows while price makes new lows). Without closing below EMA20 ($412$), expect the Supertrend to turn bullish. Bitcoin testing the $90.944 resistance could trigger an altcoin rally. If the price breaks above $402.08 resistance with volume backing, momentum accelerates and the short-term trend reversal is confirmed.
Traders should monitor holding above support and resistance breakout in this scenario. Stop-losses should be placed below $352 to manage risk. This setup enhances the rebound potential of the oversold RSI; historically, ZEC has rallied after similar levels following 20%+ pullbacks.
Target Levels
First target $402.08, second $465.78 Supertrend resistance, and third $534.56. Long-term bullish target $617.14 (score 25/100), aligned with Fibonacci extension levels. In this scenario, risk/reward ratio from current price ($360) is around 1:1.8; invalidation is a close below $352.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario is triggered by a volume-backed break below the $352.51 support. MACD histogram going more negative, staying below EMAs, and RSI dropping below 30 strengthen the momentum. Bitcoin breaking its $88.350 support adds pressure on ZEC due to high correlation. Decreasing volume or a sudden spike can accelerate selling on a downside breakout. The 1W timeframe bearish Supertrend signals long-term weakness.
In this scenario, watch for weak rebound after support test and new lows. Traders can consider shorting near $307.50 approach, but rising BTC dominance crushes altcoins. Historical data shows ZEC has experienced 30%+ drops in similar MTF bearish alignments.
Protection Levels
First protection $352.51, then $307.50 on breakout. Deep bearish target $44.99 (score 16/100), pointing to long-term supports. Risk/reward from current price is 1:8+ (high risk), invalidation is a close above $364.91. $352 stop is critical for positions.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Key triggers: For bullish, $364.91 – $402 breakout with volume >$1B and RSI >50; for bearish, close below $352 with volume increase. Confirmation signals: Bullish MACD zero line crossover, bearish EMA50 (~$380) break. Daily candle closes and BTC movement are decisive. Follow with additional data from ZEC Spot Analysis and ZEC Futures Analysis pages. Trade with R/R calculations in both scenarios.
Bitcoin Correlation
ZEC shows high correlation with BTC (recently 0.85+). BTC is in a downtrend with a 1.93% drop from $89.823; supports at $88.350, $86.725, $84.681. If BTC breaks these supports, expect additional 10-20% pressure on ZEC. Conversely, BTC breaking above $90.944 resistance strengthens ZEC’s bullish scenario. With BTC Supertrend bearish, be cautious for altcoins; rising BTC dominance negatively impacts ZEC. Prioritize monitoring BTC levels.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
ZEC’s current contraction offers traders preparation opportunities in both directions. Watch resistance breakouts for bullish, support losses for bearish. Prioritize volume, RSI divergence, and BTC correlation on daily/4H charts. Size positions according to R/R; no news flow but macro risks (regulation, post-BTC halving dynamics) could influence. Watchlist: $352, $364.91, $402, BTC 88k/90k.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/zec-rise-or-fall-january-21-2026-scenario-analysis
