DOGE is at a critical juncture at the $0.13 level. Although the downtrend dominates, with RSI at 39 approaching the oversold region, Bitcoin’s weak performance makes both scenarios possible; the direction of the breakout will be decisive.
Current Market Situation
DOGE is trading at $0.13 with a 1.90% decline over the last 24 hours and is stuck in the $0.12-$0.13 range. Volume is relatively high at $1.02 billion, but the trend continues downward. RSI at 39.08 is in the neutral-bearish zone, close to oversold but momentum hasn’t turned yet. The MACD histogram is negative and giving bearish signals. Price is trading below EMA20 ($0.14), confirming the short-term bearish structure. The Supertrend indicator is bearish and $0.15 resistance forms a strong barrier.
In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/4 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. Key supports are $0.1161 (score 68/100) and $0.1235 (63/100), resistances are $0.1285 (73/100) and $0.1776 (61/100). The market has a generally bearish bias, but support tests could create rebound opportunities.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How Does This Scenario Unfold?
For the bullish scenario, a clear break above the $0.1285 resistance (score 73/100) is required first. A close above this level targets EMA20 ($0.14) and Supertrend resistance ($0.15). RSI moving above 50 and the MACD histogram crossing above the zero line provides momentum confirmation. Volume increase is essential; breaking above the current $1B volume shows buyer strength. Bitcoin testing its $90,944 resistance could create positive spillover for DOGE. If bullish alignment forms on 1D and 3D charts in MTF, a weekly trend reversal becomes possible. This scenario is invalidated by a close below $0.1161 support – if this level breaks, the upside potential is eliminated.
Target Levels
First target is the $0.15 Supertrend level, followed by the main $0.1776 resistance (score 61/100). According to Fibonacci extensions, %161.8 ($0.18 area) and %200 ($0.22) are further targets. The risk/reward ratio from current levels may appear attractive at around 1:3, but evaluate only after the trigger. Watch for: volume-backed candle close above $0.1285 and RSI divergence.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario is triggered by a close below the $0.1161 support (score 68/100). This breakout invalidates $0.1235 and is reinforced by deeper negative MACD divergence. If RSI drops below 30, selling pressure increases. Bitcoin failing to break its $88,410 support creates general weakness in altcoins – with BTC Supertrend bearish, DOGE correlation is high. If volume spikes downward, panic selling kicks in. In MTF, excess resistances on 3D and 1W (4R/3R) could limit upside moves. Invalidation: close above $0.1285 – if this happens, the bearish scenario is disproven.
Protection Levels
First stop below $0.1161, next at the $0.0749 bearish target (score 22/100). On lower timeframes, monitor the $0.12 psychological support. Fibonacci retracements at %61.8 ($0.10) and %78.6 ($0.09) are deep correction zones. Risk/reward here is also 1:2-3, aligned with the current bearish bias. Key: increasing volume on support breakdown and BTC weakness.
Which Scenario to Watch?
The decision point is between $0.1285 resistance and $0.1161 support. For upside breakout, watch for volume-backed 4-hour close + RSI above 50; for downside, support loss + MACD negative expansion. Daily chart candle patterns (bullish engulfing vs. bearish breakdown) and volume profile are critical. Bitcoin movement is decisive: BTC above $90K triggers buys, below $88K accelerates sells. Integrate early invalidation levels into your trade plan for both scenarios – don’t rush, wait for confirmation. Follow detailed data from DOGE Spot Analysis and DOGE Futures Analysis pages.
Bitcoin Correlation
DOGE has high correlation with BTC (%0.85+). BTC is in a downtrend at $89,434 with a 3.24% decline; Supertrend bearish. If BTC breaks $88,410 support, DOGE’s $0.1161 loss accelerates, with cascade risk to $86,637. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $90,944 resistance, it supports DOGE upside – above $92,499 could trigger an altcoin rally. If BTC dominance rises (currently a bearish signal), extra pressure forms on altcoins like DOGE. Key BTC levels: Supports $88,410/$86,637/$84,681; Resistances $90,944/$92,499/$94,276. Monitor the BTC chart in parallel with DOGE analysis.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
Both scenarios are valid for DOGE; the current bearish structure makes upside difficult, but support rebounds are common. Watchlist: 1) $0.1285/$0.1161 breakouts, 2) RSI/MACD divergences, 3) Volume spikes, 4) BTC $90K test. Weekly close clarifies trend direction. Apply your own risk management, market is volatile – compare DOGE spot and futures markets. This analysis serves as a tool for traders to refine their own decisions.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/doge-rise-or-fall-january-21-2026-scenario-analysis
