Polymarket faces Portugal ban after frenzied activity linked to presidential elections

Portugal is restricting access to Polymarket just days after the platform built up peak volumes on its presidential elections. The platform is about to be restricted in yet another territory, once again due to high-profile trading. 

Polymarket will be restricted in the Portugal market, potentially inviting local users to seek workarounds. The country’s gambling regulator did not take the argument that Polymarket is a trading platform. 

Instead, the national regulator issued a demand that Polymarket stop all operations within 48 hours. The move resembles when France limited the platform after a local whale became notorious for his correct predictions on the US Presidential elections in 2024. 

Before Portugal, Ukraine and Romaina also restricted Polymarket. The latest move shows prediction platforms are still an object of scrutiny and are equated to gambling.

The restriction arrived just after the first round of Portugal’s elections, which singled out António José Seguro and André Ventura as the candidates in a potentially polarizing election.

Polymarket restricted after presidential elections

Similar to the case of France, Portugal reacted to Polymarket just as the platform was gaining legs in the country. The high-volume prediction market for Portugal’s presidential elections triggered the regulator’s reaction. 

Polymarket has been viewed with skepticism, as its information is wildly popular on social media. For some, this exposure to election predictions may sway the process, and its effect is not neutral. 

The local regulator stated Polymarket lacked a gambling license, and the state also wanted to ban political betting. 

Beyond the monetary value, Polymarket is also used as a real-time gauge of sentiment. The platform’s political pairs are some of the most active and liquid, attracting both speculation and serious analysis. Market participants and social media also have a real-time preview of the appeal of candidates, which may paradoxically further sway election results. 

Polymarket still carries predictions on the second round of Portugal’s elections

Polymarket is still closely watched as new prediction markets have arisen for the second round of the elections, scheduled for February 8. 

The current market to predict the winner has already achieved over $121M in trading volumes, while singling out António José Seguro as the probable winner. The market activity is accelerating, just as Polymarket may discontinue access for local traders. 

Polymarket activity on Portugal’s elections continues ahead of the second round scheduled for February 8. | Source: Polymarket

According to local media, the regulator increased its scrutiny as Polymarket traded $4M in positions just before the first round of the election results was announced. 

“The website is not authorized to offer betting in Portugal , and under national law, betting on political events or happenings, whether national or international, is not permitted,” announced the local regulator SRIJ. 

The regulator announced it only recently became aware of Polymarket’s activity. The regulator expressed worries about potential insider trading and the usage of exit poll information. 

Polymarket was still operational in Portugal on Monday, and the site may be accessed through wallets or other tools. However, Portugal’s move raises the issue of increased scrutiny, just as platforms became more confident that their activity was not considered a form of gambling.

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