Is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock a Buy Ahead of Earnings Wednesday?

TLDR

• Johnson & Johnson reports Q4 2025 earnings on January 21, with analysts expecting EPS of $2.49-$2.50 and revenue of $24.14-$24.16 billion
• JNJ stock has jumped 47-48.7% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500’s 14.7% return during the same period
• The company released positive Phase 3 data for Caplyta in treating major depressive disorder, with 65% of patients achieving remission in a 6-month extension study
• JNJ announced $55 billion in U.S. investments including a $2 billion biologics plant in North Carolina creating 5,000 jobs
• A Maryland jury ordered JNJ to pay $1.56 billion in a talc lawsuit, the largest single-plaintiff verdict, which the company plans to appeal

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Johnson & Johnson reports its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results before market open on Wednesday, January 21. Wall Street expects earnings per share to jump 22% to $2.49-$2.50, while revenue is forecast to grow 7.3% year-over-year to around $24.14 billion.

Johnson & Johnson, JNJ

The stock has delivered impressive returns lately. JNJ shares climbed 47-48.7% over the past year, crushing the S&P 500’s 14.7% gain during the same timeframe.

Analysts remain split on the stock heading into earnings. TipRanks shows JNJ with a Moderate Buy rating based on seven Buy recommendations and five Hold ratings. The average price target of $221.09 suggests just 1.1% upside from current levels.

The company maintains its Dividend King status with over 60 years of consecutive dividend increases. JNJ currently pays a quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share, yielding 2.50% with a payout ratio of 49.52%.

JNJ’s Innovative Medicine segment should drive growth in the quarter. Analysts expect strong sales from key drugs including Darzalex, Tremfya, and Erleada. The consensus estimate for Darzalex stands at $3.74 billion, with Tremfya at $1.36 billion and Erleada at $936 million.

Newer drugs like Carvykti, Tecvayli, Talvey, and Rybrevant are gaining traction. Caplyta, Lazcluze, and Spravato should also contribute to top-line growth.

Biosimilar Competition Hits Blockbuster Drug

Stelara faces heavy pressure from biosimilar competition. Multiple companies including Amgen, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, and Samsung Bioepis/Sandoz launched biosimilar versions in the United States during 2025. The Stelara loss of exclusivity hammered the Innovative Medicines segment by 1,070 basis points in Q3. Analysts expect even steeper declines in Q4 as more biosimilar entrants flood the market. Consensus estimates peg Stelara sales at just $1.36 billion.

Imbruvica sales are likely down due to new oral competition and Medicare Part D redesign impacts. The consensus estimate sits at $670 million. Generic and biosimilar competition for drugs like Zytiga and Remicade continues to eat into revenue.

The MedTech segment has shown improvement in recent quarters. Growth came from acquired cardiovascular businesses Abiomed and Shockwave, plus gains in Surgical Vision and wound closure. The electrophysiology business is performing better too. Analysts expect the MedTech segment to generate $8.71 billion in Q4 revenue.

China remains a trouble spot for MedTech. The government’s volume-based procurement program continues pressuring sales through mandated cost reductions.

Recent Developments Shape Outlook

JNJ shared positive Phase 3 trial data for Caplyta on January 16. When added to an antidepressant, the drug increased remission rates at six weeks versus placebo in patients with major depressive disorder. In a six-month open-label extension, 65% of patients achieved remission. The FDA approved Caplyta as an add-on treatment for major depressive disorder in November 2025.

The company struck a deal with the Trump administration to lower drug prices for Americans while securing exemptions from U.S. tariffs. This balances consumer affordability with business advantages.

JNJ announced two new U.S. manufacturing facilities as part of its $55 billion domestic investment plan. A $2 billion biologics plant in Wilson, North Carolina is underway and will create about 5,000 jobs. More U.S. investment announcements are expected later this year.

Talc litigation remains a major overhang. A Maryland jury recently ordered JNJ to pay $1.56 billion, the largest single-plaintiff verdict ever, for alleged mesothelioma from its baby powder. The company plans to appeal, maintaining its powder never contained asbestos. JNJ says it will take full responsibility for verdicts tied to Kenvue.

For 2026, management previously indicated consensus estimates were too low. Back in October, JNJ said it expects top-line growth above 5% versus the then-consensus of 4.6%. Adjusted earnings per share were projected about 5 cents higher than the October consensus of $11.39. Investors will watch closely for updated 2026 guidance on the earnings call.

The stock trades at 19.01 times forward earnings, above the industry average of 17.73 and JNJ’s five-year mean of 15.65. The company has beaten earnings expectations in each of the past four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 3.75%.

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