Bitcoin faces rising downside risk as macro pressure and weak technicals point to a possible drop toward $80,000 on a rising-wedge breakdown.
Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed its lowest Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) in a year, a sign that US-based investors were applying strong selling pressure relative to global markets.
Key takeaways:
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US selling pressure spiked as the Coinbase Premium Gap hit a one-year low during a market holiday.
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$80,000 downside risk grows if Bitcoin breaks down from its rising-wedge pattern.
Holiday selling a bad omen for BTC price
As of Monday, Bitcoin’s 30-day average CPG fell to about −63.85, its lowest level since January 2025. That reading preceded a BTC price drop to roughly $78,350 from above $102,000 in just four months.
Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Gap vs. BTC price. Source: CryptoQuantThe CPG tracks the price difference between Bitcoin’s USD pair on Coinbase and its USDt (USDT) pair on Binance.
When the gap turns deeply negative, it means Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on Coinbase, suggesting US traders are selling more aggressively than their offshore counterparts. When the gap is positive, it typically signals stronger US buying demand.
The CPG low formed during a US market holiday, when spot Bitcoin ETFs were inactive. It showed that the selling pressure did not come from spot Bitcoin ETFs, but from US whales operating outside of traditional funds, according to analyst Mignolet.
“It’s one of the traditional selling patterns we’ve seen repeatedly in the past,” he wrote in a Monday post.
The timing also coincided with a broader shift in market sentiment. US futures fell after US President Donald Trump escalated tariff threats against European Union nations that resisted his plans to take control of Greenland.
Nasdaq futures vs. gold and silver daily chart. Source: TradingViewAt the same time, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver rallied, signaling capital rotation away from risk.
Bitcoin technicals raise odds of decline below $90,000
Bitcoin’s daily chart also showed a rising wedge formation, a pattern that often signals weakening upside momentum during corrective rebounds.
Price printed higher lows but within narrowing trendlines, reflecting shrinking buying conviction. The structure increased the risk of a downside breakdown if macro pressure persists and pushes the CPG deeper into negative territory.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewA confirmed loss of wedge support would likely trigger a measured downside move, as is typical in rising-wedge breakdowns, exposing Bitcoin to accelerated selling toward prior demand zones.
Related: BTC vs. new $80K ‘liquidity grab’: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Based on the pattern’s height and recent historical reactions, the $80,000–$78,000 area emerges as the primary downside target.
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