The current market structure remains solidly in an uptrend, but short-term resistances and pricing below EMA20 signal a slight weakening in the trend. Uptrend intact without structure break.
Market Structure Overview
When examining NEXO’s market structure, a clear uptrend is observed in the general framework. Price maintains its bullish character by preserving the higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern. Current price at $0.96 level, trading in $0.94-$0.99 range with -2.43% drop in the last 24 hours. Although pricing below short-term EMA20 ($0.96) gives a bearish short-term bias, MACD shows positive histogram and RSI at 50.72 indicates neutral momentum. Supertrend signal is bearish and points to $1.07 resistance, but there are 14 strong levels in multi-timeframe (MTF) structure: 2 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 2S/3R on 3D, 3S/2R on 1W. These levels confirm the structure’s solidity. If the market holds the last swing low $0.9513 (85/100 score), uptrend continues; if broken, change of character (CHoCH) risk increases. This analysis is price action focused, based on higher highs/lower lows, BOS, and swing point methodology. Lower low (LL) formation is required for uptrend invalidation.
Trend Analysis: Up or Down?
Uptrend Signals
Uptrend is defined by the classic HH/HL structure. Higher high means a new high above the previous peak; higher low means holding above the previous low. In NEXO, the recent $1.0562 (68/100) main swing high represents HH, preceded by $1.0094 and $0.9631 levels forming a series of HHs. In pullbacks, $0.9513 has provided strong support as HL (85/100 score), with $0.9032 as the lower HL. This pattern shows buyers in control: higher holds at each low, new record candidates at each high. MACD bullish histogram supports this momentum. On 1W timeframe, 3 strong supports confirm the uptrend’s long-term intact status. With price near EMA20 at $0.96, if HLs are preserved, it could lead to $1.2560 bullish target (28 score).
Downtrend Risk
For bearish scenario, watch for lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). LH is a new high below the previous peak; LL is breaking the previous low. Currently, $0.9631 looks like a minor LH, but the real danger is breaking the $0.9513 swing low. This would create a bearish BOS (break of structure) and trigger CHoCH signal – character change from uptrend to downtrend. Supertrend bearish and price below EMA20 increase short-term LH/LL risk. $0.7485 bearish target (22 score) comes into play in this scenario. Although RSI 50.72 is neutral, 4 resistance levels on 1D create pressure. Clear LL is required for trend change; otherwise, uptrend remains dominant.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
BOS is the break of market structure: For bullish BOS, previous swing high is broken (new HH confirmation); for bearish BOS, swing low is broken (LL formation). Critical BOS levels for NEXO:
- Bullish BOS: Break above $1.0562 – uptrend continuation, opens path to $1.2560. $1.0094 and $1.07 (Supertrend resistance) are intermediate levels.
- Bearish BOS: Break below $0.9513 – CHoCH triggered, downtrend begins. Then $0.9032 and $0.7485 targets.
These levels are strong in MTF: 3D/1W supports protect the uptrend. Do not speculate without BOS; wait for price action. For example, if $0.9513 holds, fakeout probability is high, buyers step in.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs: $0.9631 (78/100, minor resistance), $1.0094 (73/100), $1.0562 (68/100, main HH). These levels show buyers’ peak-making strength. Break of $1.0562 starts new HH leg, trend strengthens. Importance: Collects liquidity on retests, clean volume required for breakout.
Recent Swing Lows
Recent swing lows: $0.9513 (85/100, critical HL support), $0.9032 (67/100). $0.9513 is the backbone of the uptrend; if held, bounce expected. If broken, cascade LL risk. Importance: Buyer order blocks accumulate at supports, price bounces or collapses from here.
Bitcoin Correlation
Altcoins like NEXO show high correlation to BTC. BTC at $93,194 (-2.07%), in uptrend but Supertrend bearish and dominance caution. BTC supports $92,932 / $90,949 / $88,230; resistances $93,865 / $95,532 / $97,924. If BTC slips below $92,932, NEXO’s $0.9513 BOS triggers – altcoin dump risk. Conversely, if BTC makes above $95,532, NEXO runs to $1.2560 with bullish BOS. BTC uptrend intact but bearish signals require cautious approach for NEXO. Correlation 80%+, BTC levels dominate NEXO structure. Details in NEXO Spot Analysis and NEXO Futures Analysis.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Structural outlook: Uptrend intact (HH/HL dominant), but short-term bearish bias ($0.9513 being tested). Wait for BOS: Up $1.0562 continuation, down $0.9513 reversal. MTF strong supports protect the trend, BTC correlation critical. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic; long bias without HH/HL breakdown, short with LL. No news, pure price action. Risk management: Place stop-loss at swing low/high. Overall, structure bullish but vigilance required.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/nexo-market-structure-analysis-january-19-2026-trend-status
