IMF upgrades its growth forecast for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s GDP is expected to grow more quickly this year, the International Monetary Fund has said, citing the rebound in oil production, steady consumer demand and economic reforms.

The organisation is now forecasting that the Saudi economy will expand by 4.5 percent in 2026, up from a previous projection of 4 percent, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook Update published on Monday.

Output is estimated to have risen 4.3 percent in 2025. Growth is expected to cool to 3.6 percent in 2027.

“We’ve seen fairly robust domestic demand, which is linked to the Vision 2030 reform plans that the government has been implementing,” said IMF economist Deniz Igan during a press conference on Monday.

Further reading:

• Saudi central bank lowers early repayment fees
• IMF praises Oman but urges faster diversification
• Saudi non-oil private-sector growth eases in December

The forecast is slightly below that of ratings agency Fitch, which has predicted growth of 4.8 percent for Saudi Arabia in 2026. The World Bank’s latest prediction for the kingdom is 4.3 percent growth this year.

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the IMF has projected economic growth to accelerate from 3.7 percent in 2025 to 3.9 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027.

Global inflation is projected to continue its decline, with headline inflation falling to 3.8 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027.