Eli Lilly vs. Novo Nordisk: Which Stock Offers More Upside?

TLDR

• Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill recorded 3,071 retail prescriptions in its first four days after launching January 5, 2026, according to IQVIA data
• The pill is the first oral weight loss medication to hit the market, with Eli Lilly’s competing oral drug expected to receive FDA decision by April 2026
• Novo Nordisk’s stock jumped 6.5% on the launch news, though the company trails Lilly in overall weight loss market share
• Eli Lilly’s Zepbound injection currently leads in quarterly sales after proving more effective than Wegovy in head-to-head trials
• Analysts estimate Novo’s oral Wegovy could generate $1 billion in sales this year if the company maintains its first-to-market advantage

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Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill recorded 3,071 retail prescriptions in its first four days on the U.S. market. The Danish pharmaceutical company launched the pill on January 5, 2026, marking the first oral weight loss medication available to consumers.

Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

The prescription data comes from IQVIA and covers only retail pharmacies. It excludes prescriptions filled through online pharmacies including Novo’s NovoCare Pharmacy.

Novo Nordisk shares rose 6.5% following the early prescription data. The stock closed at its highest level since September 2025. The company has been working to regain market position after profit warnings and slowing growth affected its share price last year.

Competition with Eli Lilly

Eli Lilly currently leads the weight loss injection market with Zepbound, which has overtaken Wegovy in quarterly sales. Zepbound received FDA approval in late 2023 and proved more effective than Wegovy in head-to-head clinical trials.

The FDA is expected to decide on Lilly’s experimental oral weight loss pill by April 2026. This decision will end Novo’s exclusive position in the oral weight loss medication market.

Barclays analysts called the early data for Wegovy pill encouraging. However, they warned that Novo’s sales could face pressure from price reductions and changing insurance coverage by U.S. states.

UBS analysts said that if Wegovy pill prescriptions reach 400,000 in the first quarter, it would match Lilly’s Zepbound launch. That performance would exceed the original Wegovy injection launch from 2021.

Market Strategy and Distribution

Novo Nordisk is focusing on cash-paying consumers outside traditional insurance coverage. The company offers the pill through CVS and Costco pharmacies, along with telehealth providers including Ro, LifeMD, WeightWatchers, GoodRx, and its own NovoCare Pharmacy.

Zach Reitano, CEO of Ro, reported early signs that the Wegovy pill is attracting both new patients and those switching from other GLP-1 medications. The company is prioritizing the U.S. launch before expanding to other markets to avoid supply shortages.

Berenberg analysts estimate the pill could bring in $1 billion in sales during 2026. This projection depends on Novo maximizing its first-mover advantage before Lilly’s oral medication enters the market.

Eli Lilly holds a market cap of $982 billion compared to Novo Nordisk’s $210 billion. Lilly also maintains a more diversified product portfolio with blockbuster drugs Verzenio and Taltz generating over $1 billion in annual sales each.

Lilly is developing orforglipron, its own oral weight loss medication. The company is also testing retatrutide, which showed 28.7% mean weight loss after 68 weeks in trials.

Novo recently received approval for the oral formulation of Wegovy. The company has also submitted an application to the FDA for CagriSema, another weight loss therapy in development.

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