Rebeca Moen
Jan 19, 2026 07:49
Toncoin shows oversold conditions at $1.61 with technical indicators suggesting potential recovery toward $2.00-$2.40 range as RSI remains neutral and MACD shows bullish momentum despite recent 6.5…
TON Price Prediction Summary
• Short-term target (1 week): $1.84
• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $2.00-$2.40 range
• Bullish breakout level: $1.93 (Upper Bollinger Band)
• Critical support: $1.42
What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Toncoin
While specific analyst predictions from key opinion leaders are limited in recent days, several forecasting platforms have provided notable Toncoin price predictions for early 2026. According to CoinCodex analysis from January 4, “Toncoin is expected to reach a price of $2.39 by Jan 9, 2026,” suggesting confidence in TON’s upward trajectory.
Blockchain.News has been particularly bullish on Toncoin’s prospects, with their January 14 analysis stating that “Toncoin shows bullish momentum with technical indicators pointing to $2.40 targets.” Their follow-up January 15 report reinforced this optimistic outlook, noting that “TON price prediction shows bullish momentum toward $2.30 target within 30 days.”
These forecasts align with on-chain metrics that suggest TON’s current positioning near oversold levels could present accumulation opportunities for traders monitoring technical rebounds.
TON Technical Analysis Breakdown
Toncoin’s current price of $1.61 represents a significant 6.52% decline over the past 24 hours, placing the token in a technically oversold position that could signal a potential reversal. The RSI reading of 40.63 sits firmly in neutral territory, suggesting neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions despite the recent selloff.
The MACD histogram shows a bullish momentum reading of 0.0000, indicating that while momentum has stalled, the underlying trend structure remains supportive of upward movement. This technical divergence between price action and momentum indicators often precedes reversals in cryptocurrency markets.
TON’s position within the Bollinger Bands is particularly noteworthy, with the token trading at just 0.0148 above the lower band at $1.60. This positioning near the lower Bollinger Band historically represents strong support levels, with the middle band at $1.77 serving as the next significant resistance target.
The moving average structure reveals mixed signals, with TON trading below most short-term averages (SMA 7: $1.71, SMA 20: $1.77) but finding support near the 50-day SMA at $1.64. The 200-day SMA at $2.46 remains well above current levels, indicating longer-term resistance.
Toncoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for this TON price prediction, immediate resistance at $1.72 represents the first target, coinciding with the EMA 12 level. A break above this level would likely trigger momentum toward the stronger resistance zone at $1.84, representing a potential 14% gain from current levels.
The ultimate bullish target aligns with analyst predictions in the $2.30-$2.40 range, requiring TON to break above the upper Bollinger Band at $1.93 and maintain momentum through the SMA 20 resistance. This scenario would represent a 50% upside potential and would require sustained buying pressure and broader market support.
Technical confirmation for the bullish case would include RSI breaking above 50, MACD histogram turning definitively positive, and volume expansion above the recent 24-hour average of $12.3 million.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario for this Toncoin forecast involves a breakdown below the critical $1.51 immediate support level, which could trigger further selling toward the strong support zone at $1.42. This downside target represents a potential 12% decline from current levels.
A more severe bearish outcome could see TON testing lower support levels if broader cryptocurrency market conditions deteriorate. The high volatility indicated by the ATR reading of $0.09 suggests that sharp moves in either direction remain possible.
Risk factors include continued selling pressure from recent highs, potential regulatory concerns affecting the broader TON ecosystem, and general cryptocurrency market weakness that could pressure altcoins regardless of individual fundamentals.
Should You Buy TON? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical indicators, potential entry points for TON include the current level near $1.61, with additional accumulation opportunities if the token tests the strong support at $1.42. The proximity to Bollinger Band support suggests favorable risk-reward ratios for patient buyers.
A conservative entry strategy would involve scaling into positions with initial buys at current levels and additional purchases if TON reaches the $1.51 support zone. Stop-loss orders should be placed below $1.40 to protect against significant downside moves.
For momentum-based entries, traders might wait for confirmation above $1.72 before establishing positions, targeting the $1.84 resistance level while maintaining stops below recent lows.
Risk management remains crucial given TON’s recent volatility, with position sizing appropriate for the 14% daily trading range and consideration of broader market conditions affecting cryptocurrency valuations.
Conclusion
This TON price prediction suggests that Toncoin’s current positioning near technical support levels, combined with analyst forecasts targeting $2.30-$2.40, presents potentially attractive entry opportunities for both short-term traders and longer-term investors. The neutral RSI and bullish MACD momentum indicators support the case for a technical bounce from current oversold levels.
While the immediate outlook suggests potential recovery toward $1.84-$2.00 levels, investors should remain aware that cryptocurrency price predictions carry inherent uncertainty, and market conditions can change rapidly. The Toncoin forecast remains cautiously optimistic based on technical indicators, though risk management and position sizing remain essential components of any trading strategy.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
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Source: https://blockchain.news/news/20260119-ton-price-prediction-targets-200-recovery-by-february-2026
