The current market structure is maintaining the downtrend; the recent LH/LL formation remains intact, but hold signals are observed at critical supports. Break of Structure (BOS) levels will be decisive.
Market Structure Overview
XRP is trading at $1.95 as of January 19, 2026, with a 5.28% decline over the last 24 hours, moving in the $1.85-$2.07 range. The overall market structure can be defined as a downtrend. This is supported by consecutive lower highs (Lower Highs – LH) and lower lows (Lower Lows – LL) formation. Price is trading below EMA20 ($2.05) and Supertrend signal is bearish; resistance is positioned at $2.21. RSI at 42.67 is in the neutral-bearish zone, MACD shows a negative histogram.
Market structure analysis is a fundamental tool for determining trend strength and potential reversal points. Higher Highs (HH)/Higher Lows (HL) indicate an uptrend, while LH/LL signals a downtrend. The recent LH/LL sequence observed in XRP reinforces the bearish structure. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, 12 strong levels were identified: 1D (3 supports/1 resistance), 3D (2S/3R), and 1W (3S/3R). This balanced distribution increases short-term consolidation risk but maintains the overall bearish bias.
Educational note: Market structure is defined by the relationship between swing points. A trend’s validity is measured by the continuation of these points without breaking. In XRP, the latest swing high $1.9906 (81/100 score) and swing low $1.9314 (80/100) are critical thresholds.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For an uptrend, a HH/HL sequence is required: each new high must be higher than the previous high, and each low higher than the previous low. Signals for this in XRP are weak; price was rejected from $2.07 and fell below $1.99. Potential bullish continuation target is $2.5627 (19 score), but requires EMA20 breakout ($2.05 above) and $1.9906 BOS. RSI close above 50 and MACD positive divergence would be supportive, but absent currently. Short-term recovery may be limited by $1.9314 support; full HH/HL requires $2.21 Supertrend breakout.
If price breaks above $1.9906 with a daily close, this would be interpreted as a Bullish BOS and HL formation begins. Otherwise, the upside remains a temporary rally.
Downtrend Risk
Downtrend is dominant: Latest LH $1.9906 (lower than previous $2.07), LL candidates extend to $1.85. Close below $1.9314 confirms new LL and opens bearish target $1.3876 (22 score). Supertrend is bearish, EMA structure slopes downward. In MTF, LH/LL continues on 1W; 3 resistances on 3D create pressure. To watch: $1.8598 and $1.7711 supports. Breaking these levels causes acceleration before CHoCH (Change of Character) – meaning the trend character shifts to down.
Educational: In LH/LL, each broken level increases trend momentum. XRP’s current structure shows selling pressure dominance.
Break of Structure (BOS) Levels
BOS (Break of Structure) is the first signal of trend change: For bullish BOS, the latest swing high is broken (XRP: daily close above $1.9906); for bearish BOS, the latest swing low is broken (below $1.9314). These levels are key for structure invalidation:
- Bullish BOS: $1.9906 (81 score) – Breakout initiates HL, targets $2.07-$2.21. Followed by $2.5627.
- Bearish BOS: $1.9314 (80 score) – Breakout confirms new LL, targets $1.8598 (69), $1.7711 (64), ultimate $1.3876.
CHoCH definition: Confirmation after BOS (e.g., new HL formation after bullish BOS). In XRP, bearish BOS is the nearer risk; if accompanied by volume increase, aggressive downside is possible. Detailed data available in XRP Spot Analysis and XRP Futures Analysis.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
$1.9906 (81/100 score): Critical resistance, latest LH. Breakout mandatory for bullish shift. Being lower than previous $2.07 confirms LH. This level is a target for short positions; if holds, consolidation extends.
Other highs: $2.07 (24h high), $2.21 Supertrend – MTF resistance cluster.
Recent Swing Lows
$1.9314 (80/100 score): Main support, latest LL candidate. If holds, triggers short-covering rally.
$1.8598 (69/100): Secondary support, around 24h low $1.85.
$1.7711 (64/100): Strong MTF support, breakout leads to panic selling.
Swing points are scored with Fibonacci and volume. High scores (80+), prioritized for BOS.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $92,630 level, 24h -2.51% in uptrend but Supertrend bearish. Main supports $92,396-$90,907-$89,049; resistances $94,151-$96,154-$98,500. BTC.Dominance increase risky for altcoins; XRP highly correlated to BTC (~0.85). BTC uptrend continuation gives XRP breathing room, but BTC Supertrend breakdown (down) causes sharp alt drop (XRP -10%+). BTC BOS below $92k accelerates XRP $1.93 breakdown. Conversely, BTC above $94k supports XRP bullish BOS. For altcoin season, await BTC.D bearish signal.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall structure bearish, LH/LL intact. Short-term consolidation likely in $1.93-$1.99 range; bearish BOS (below $1.9314) signals trend continuation, bullish BOS (above $1.9906) indicates shift. MTF balance increases volatility – news flow (XRP lawsuit etc.) could disrupt structure. Strategy: Long at supports, short at resistances; stop-loss according to BOS levels. Market structures are dynamic; regular MTF checks essential. Absence of news keeps technicals dominant.
Educational summary: Trend analysis evolves with BOS/CHoCH. In XRP, bearish bias prevails, invalidation levels clear.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-market-structure-analysis-trend-status-on-january-19-2026
