Zach Anderson
Jan 17, 2026 07:36
Toncoin trades at $1.71 with neutral RSI at 49.49. Recent analyst targets point to $2.40 potential, while technical indicators show mixed signals requiring breakout confirmation.
Toncoin (TON) continues to navigate a critical technical juncture as the cryptocurrency trades at $1.71, down 0.58% in the past 24 hours. With recent analyst forecasts pointing toward potential upside and technical indicators showing mixed signals, this TON price prediction examines the key levels that could determine the token’s near-term trajectory.
TON Price Prediction Summary
• Short-term target (1 week): $1.76-$1.80
• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $2.00-$2.40 range
• Bullish breakout level: $1.94 (Upper Bollinger Band)
• Critical support: $1.65
What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Toncoin
Recent analyst coverage has painted an increasingly optimistic picture for Toncoin’s medium-term prospects. According to CoinCodex’s January 15 analysis, “Toncoin is expected to reach a price of $2.20 by Jan 20, 2026,” representing a 28% upside from current levels.
Blockchain.News has been even more bullish in their Toncoin forecast, stating on January 14 that “Toncoin shows bullish momentum with technical indicators pointing to $2.40 targets.” Their updated analysis from January 15 noted that TON “is trading at $1.79 as of January 15, 2026, showing modest gains of 0.90% over the past 24 hours. With technical indicators painting a mixed but increasingly bullish picture,” the $2.40 target remains in focus.
While specific analyst predictions provide directional guidance, on-chain metrics and trading data suggest the token is positioning for a potential technical breakout above key resistance levels.
TON Technical Analysis Breakdown
Toncoin’s current technical setup presents a neutral to slightly bearish short-term picture with improving medium-term prospects. The RSI at 49.49 sits in neutral territory, indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions. This positioning often precedes significant directional moves once momentum builds.
The MACD histogram reading of 0.0000 signals bearish momentum in the immediate term, though the proximity to zero suggests this bearish pressure may be weakening. The MACD line at 0.0239 and signal line at the same level indicate potential for a bullish crossover if buying pressure emerges.
Bollinger Bands analysis reveals TON trading in the lower portion of its recent range, with the current price 37% of the way between the lower band at $1.58 and upper band at $1.94. This positioning often indicates potential for mean reversion toward the middle band at $1.76, which aligns with the 20-period simple moving average.
Moving average analysis shows mixed signals across timeframes. While TON trades below shorter-term averages (SMA 7 at $1.74, SMA 20 at $1.76), it maintains a position above the critical SMA 50 at $1.64. However, the significant gap to the SMA 200 at $2.47 highlights the longer-term recovery required.
Key resistance emerges at $1.76 (SMA 20 and strong resistance level), followed by $1.94 (Upper Bollinger Band). Support levels are well-defined at $1.68 (immediate) and $1.65 (strong support).
Toncoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish scenario for this TON price prediction, a break above the $1.76 resistance level could trigger momentum toward the $1.94 upper Bollinger Band. Technical confirmation would require sustained trading above $1.76 with increasing volume, as evidenced by the current 24-hour volume of $6.16 million on Binance.
A successful breakout above $1.94 would open the path toward the analyst targets of $2.20-$2.40. The $2.20 target represents the near-term objective, while $2.40 serves as the medium-term bullish target based on technical projections. This scenario would require RSI to break above 60 and MACD to generate a sustained bullish crossover.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case centers around a failure to hold the $1.68 immediate support level. A break below this level could accelerate selling toward the $1.65 strong support, with further downside risk extending to the $1.58 lower Bollinger Band.
Risk factors include broader cryptocurrency market weakness, regulatory concerns, or technical breakdown below the critical $1.64 level (SMA 50). The significant distance to the $2.47 long-term average suggests vulnerability to extended consolidation or correction phases.
Should You Buy TON? Entry Strategy
For traders considering TON exposure, the current technical setup suggests a cautious approach with defined risk parameters. Potential entry points include:
Conservative Entry: Wait for a confirmed break above $1.76 with volume confirmation before establishing positions. This approach reduces downside risk but may sacrifice some upside potential.
Aggressive Entry: Current levels around $1.71 offer a reasonable risk-reward setup for those willing to accept higher volatility, with stop-loss placement below $1.65.
Stop-loss Strategy: Regardless of entry approach, risk management should include stops below $1.65 to limit downside exposure. The daily ATR of $0.08 provides guidance for position sizing based on expected volatility.
Risk Management: Given the mixed technical signals, position sizes should reflect the uncertainty in near-term direction. Consider scaling into positions rather than single large entries.
Conclusion
This TON price prediction suggests cautious optimism for Toncoin’s medium-term prospects, despite near-term technical uncertainty. The convergence of analyst targets around $2.20-$2.40 and supportive technical levels provides a framework for potential upside, though immediate momentum remains mixed.
The key catalyst will be TON’s ability to reclaim and hold above the $1.76 resistance level, which would validate the bullish thesis and open the path toward higher targets. Until this technical confirmation emerges, traders should maintain disciplined risk management while positioning for potential breakout opportunities.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and price predictions are inherently speculative. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Image source: Shutterstock
Source: https://blockchain.news/news/20260117-price-prediction-ton-targets-240-by-february-amid-technical
