Is Tesla Stock Worth Buying Ahead of January 28 Earnings?

TLDR

• Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, missing Wall Street’s estimate of 422,850 and marking another quarter of declining deliveries
• The stock gained only 11.4% in 2025, underperforming both the S&P 500 (up 16.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (up 20.4%)
• Tesla’s robotaxi service was promised to serve half of the U.S. population by end of 2025 but failed to materialize
• Wall Street analysts now rate Tesla as a “Hold” with an average 12-month price target of $394.12, down 10.26% from current levels
• The company will discontinue its $9,000 one-time purchase option for full self-driving on February 14, moving to a $99 monthly subscription model

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Tesla faces a critical moment as its January 28 earnings report approaches. The electric vehicle maker’s recent performance raises questions about whether its premium valuation still makes sense.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The numbers tell a concerning story. Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025. Wall Street expected 422,850.

For the full year, Tesla shipped 1,636,129 vehicles against expectations of 1,640,752. These misses matter because vehicle sales remain Tesla’s primary revenue and profit source.

The stock’s 2025 performance reflected these struggles. Tesla shares gained just 11.4% last year. The S&P 500 climbed 16.4% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 20.4% during the same period.

Tesla registered only 227 vehicles in India throughout 2025. This weak showing in a major growth market adds to concerns about the company’s expansion efforts.

The Robotaxi Reality Check

CEO Elon Musk promised Tesla’s robotaxi service would serve half the U.S. population by the end of 2025. That deadline passed without the service materializing.

The robotaxi program highlights a growing gap between Musk’s promises and actual results. Years of development have produced little commercial progress in autonomous ride-hailing.

Tesla even lost its trademark for “Cybercab,” the planned name for its autonomous taxi. A French beverage company filed for the trademark first in 2024 while Tesla was late with its paperwork.

The humanoid “Optimus” robot faces similar delays. Despite hints of imminent production, the android remains years away from commercial availability.

Subscription Strategy Shift

Tesla announced a major change to its full self-driving offering. The $9,000 one-time purchase option ends February 14, 2026.

The company will shift to a subscription model priced at $99 per month. This move could boost recurring revenue if the technology achieves mass adoption.

Wall Street analysts have downgraded their outlook on Tesla stock. The average rating now sits at “Hold” with a 12-month price target of $394.12, representing a 10.26% decline from recent trading levels.

Tesla stock trades at a premium compared to traditional automakers. The company’s price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios reflect expectations of a high-margin tech business rather than a capital-intensive manufacturer.

Vehicle market share continues to shrink as competitors launch new electric models. This erosion threatens Tesla’s once-dominant position in the EV market.

The stock closed at $439.20 on January 14, sitting 104.99% above its 52-week low of $214.25. Despite recent challenges, shares rallied 41% over the previous six months.

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