NESG outlook: 5 things startups should expect from Nigeria’s economy in 2026

If you are building a startup in Nigeria, 2026 is not just another year. According to the NESG macroeconomic outlook, the country is entering what they call a consolidation phase. In plain English, it means Nigeria is trying to lock in the painful reforms of the past two years and turn them into something stable and useful. No more crisis mode in the economy. At least that is the plan.

So what should founders actually expect from the economy in 2026?

Let us break it down.

Dr. Tayo Aduloju, CEO, NESG

1. Inflation will cool down, but your cost of living will not magically disappear

Nigeria’s inflation story is one of the few bright spots in the report. Inflation dropped from about 27.61 per cent in January 2025 to 17.33 per cent by November 2025, per rebased numbers from the National Bureau of Statistics. That is a massive 10.28 percentage point drop in less than a year. It is the lowest inflation level since May 2022

This happened mainly because of the tight monetary policy from the Central Bank. Interest rates were kept high to slow down spending and stabilise prices. For startups, this means pricing volatility will reduce. You can plan better. Your costs will not jump every week.

But do not celebrate too early. Food inflation is still stubborn. The NESG report says households are still struggling because food prices remain high due to insecurity in farming areas and supply disruptions

Translation for founders: Your customers still feel broke. Spending power will improve slowly. Growth will be gradual, not explosive.

2. Interest rates will remain high, but there is light at the end of the tunnel

In 2025, lending rates stayed painful. Maximum lending rates hovered around 29 per cent. The monetary policy rate was still above 27 per cent. Yes, insane. The report shows rates only eased slightly by the end of the year.

For startups, this means bank loans will still be expensive in 2026. Bootstrapping remains king. Grants and equity will continue to beat debt.

But the NESG projects a slow softening if inflation keeps falling. If that happens, credit access may gradually improve. Not cheap loans yet. Just less brutal ones.

3. The naira will stay relatively stable

One of the biggest changes from 2023 is FX stability. In 2025, the gap between the official rate and the parallel market shrank to less than 3 per cent. The average official rate was about N1,504 per dollar, while the parallel market was around N1,538.

What changed? Nigeria unified the FX market and stopped heavy interventions. The naira initially crashed but then stabilised.

Foreign reserves also jumped to $45.5 billion in 2025. That is the highest level in seven years. This was boosted by Eurobond sales that were oversubscribed by $13 billion.

What this means for startups is simple. Less FX wahala. Importing software tools, paying foreign vendors and receiving dollar revenue will be more predictable. No more wild daily swings.

4. Growth will happen, but unevenly

Nigeria’s GDP grew 3.8 per cent in the first three quarters of 2025. Better than 2024 but still below the government target of 4.6 per cent.

Services carried the economy. It contributed over 60 per cent of the growth. Industry followed with about 22 per cent. Agriculture lagged at 18 per cent.

Oil production also jumped with 9.4 per cent growth. Manufacturing, however, grew at just 1.5 per cent.

What does this mean for startups? If you are in fintech, logistics, media, SaaS or services, the wind is behind you. If you are in manufacturing or agritech, growth is slower, but policy support is coming.

The NESG report explicitly targets manufacturing growth of up to 8 per cent annually and agriculture productivity up to 6 per cent under the optimal consolidation pathway

This is a signal. More incentives are coming for real sector startups.

5. Investors will keep coming into the economy, but cautiously

Capital inflows doubled in 2025. Nigeria attracted $22 billion between January and November. In 2024, it was just $10.8 billion. Sounds great, right?

But here is the catch. 85 per cent ($18.7 billion) of that money was foreign portfolio investment. Short-term hot money is chasing high interest rates. Only $0.8 billion came as foreign direct investment.

So yes, confidence is improving. Nigeria even got a credit rating upgrade from S&P. But long-term investors are still watching from the sidelines.

For founders, this means global VCs will not rush back yet. Local capital and strategic partnerships will matter more in 2026. But the door is opening.

Bonus reality check

Government revenue improved in 2025. Non-oil taxes performed well at 93 per cent of target. But capital spending collapsed. Development spending was 73 per cent below target because debt servicing swallowed the budget.

So do not expect massive government contracts or infrastructure miracles overnight. The state is broke but trying.

The real takeaway

NESG says Nigeria is at an inflexion point. Either the country locks in reforms and grows sustainably, or everything collapses again.

For startups, 2026 is a year of cautious optimism. Inflation is falling. FX is stable. Growth is slow but real. Investors are watching. Policies are getting clearer.

This is not boom season. But it is no longer survival mode either.

If you survive the economy in 2026 and position well, you will be standing right when the acceleration phase hits.

That is the real game.

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