Slimmer passengers, fatter margins: Why analysts see weight-loss drugs boosting US airlines’ earnings

As weight-loss drugs fuel a dramatic shift in American waistlines, Wall Street is eyeing an unexpected beneficiary of the trend: the airline industry.

Analysts at Jefferies suggest that the widespread adoption of obesity drugs could lead to significant fuel savings for carriers, as lighter passengers reduce overall aircraft weight and enhance fuel efficiency.

With fuel among the biggest cost items for airlines, even modest reductions in weight could deliver a noticeable lift to profits.

“A slimmer society = lower fuel consumption. Airlines have a history of being vigilant around aircraft weight savings, from olives (pitless, of course) to paper stock,” the Wall Street firm said in a note to clients.

Fuel savings could add up quickly, leading to upside in EPS

As weight-loss drugs become more accessible and obesity rates begin to fall, Jefferies said major US carriers, including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines, could benefit disproportionately.

The broker estimates that a 10% reduction in average passenger weight could result in about a 2% reduction in total aircraft weight.

That, in turn, could lower fuel costs by up to 1.5% and lift earnings per share by as much as 4% across the group.

The four airlines together are expected to burn around 16 billion gallons of fuel this year, at an average cost of $2.41 per gallon.

That equates to a combined fuel bill of nearly $39 billion, representing about 19% of total operating expenses, according to Jefferies.

On that basis, Jefferies projects potential EPS gains of roughly 2.8% for Delta, 3.5% for United, 4.2% for Southwest and as much as 11.7% for American, which has higher operating leverage to fuel costs.

Why weight matters so much

Aircraft weight is one of the most important drivers of fuel efficiency, a point frequently highlighted by manufacturers such as Boeing.

When a plane is delivered, it has a fixed operating empty weight, with the remaining allowance up to maximum takeoff weight allocated among fuel, passengers, baggage and cargo.

Jefferies pointed to the Boeing 737 Max 8 as an example.

The aircraft has an operating empty weight of about 99,000 pounds, capacity for roughly 46,000 pounds of fuel and about 36,000 pounds of payload.

In a typical two-class configuration with 178 passengers averaging 180 pounds each, passengers account for around 32,000 pounds.

A 10% decline in average passenger weight would reduce that figure by about 3,200 pounds, or roughly 2% of maximum takeoff weight.

Spread across thousands of flights each year, the resulting fuel savings could be significant.

Airlines have long obsessed over weight

The industry’s fixation on weight is well documented.

In 2018, United Airlines switched its in-flight magazine to lighter paper, cutting roughly an ounce per copy.

Jefferies said the move was expected to save about 170,000 gallons of fuel annually, worth close to $290,000 at the time.

Now, analysts argue, structural changes driven by pharmaceuticals could dwarf such incremental measures.

GLP-1 drugs widen potential impact

The backdrop is the rapid expansion of the global weight-loss drug market.

Earlier this month, Novo Nordisk launched the first pill version of its GLP-1 obesity treatment in the US at a lower cost than injectable alternatives.

A similar pill from Eli Lilly is expected to receive US approval within months.

By removing the need for injections, pills are widely expected to attract first-time users and accelerate adoption.

According to McKinsey, nearly one in three US adults, or about 100 million people, meet the clinical definition of obesity, alongside around 900 million people globally.

Morgan Stanley estimates that about 11% of the world’s 1.3 billion eligible population could eventually be using obesity drugs.

The bank forecasts the market could reach $150 billion by 2035, up from $15 billion in 2024, suggesting the downstream effects may extend well beyond healthcare.

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