Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit New Highs with Liquidity Boost

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026 due to expanding dollar liquidity.
• Hayes believes the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion will play a major role in increasing Bitcoin’s value.
• Despite Bitcoin’s poor performance in 2025, Hayes emphasizes that liquidity is the key factor driving the cryptocurrency’s price.
• Hayes highlights that the rise of AI technology boosted tech stocks in 2025 while Bitcoin struggled due to liquidity constraints.
• According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s value will continue to grow as fiat currencies face ongoing debasement.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026, despite its poor performance compared to gold and tech stocks in 2025. Hayes highlights that the potential expansion of monetary conditions could spark a rally in the cryptocurrency. He believes that Bitcoin’s value is closely tied to the availability of dollar liquidity and anticipates a surge in liquidity in the coming year.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge in 2026

Arthur Hayes points to the expansion of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as a key factor in increasing dollar liquidity. He believes that increased money printing and falling mortgage rates will provide the necessary boost for Bitcoin. “Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen,” Hayes said, referring to the key condition for Bitcoin to regain its upward momentum.

Hayes further suggests that commercial banks’ willingness to lend to US government-backed strategic industries will also support the liquidity expansion. This, in turn, could benefit riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. With growing dollar liquidity, Bitcoin could reclaim its strength as investors seek assets that hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

In 2025, Bitcoin’s performance was notably poor, with the cryptocurrency falling by 14.4%. Hayes attributes this decline to a contraction in dollar liquidity, which negatively impacted the entire crypto market. He points out that while Bitcoin struggled, technology stocks, particularly those tied to artificial intelligence (AI), saw impressive gains.

Despite Bitcoin’s decline, Hayes cautions against drawing the wrong conclusions about its long-term potential. “It was as it always is, a liquidity story,” he stated, emphasizing that the performance of Bitcoin is closely tied to the broader economic conditions, rather than any fundamental weakness of the cryptocurrency itself. The rise of AI technology, however, helped tech stocks maintain a strong performance in 2025, with the Nasdaq delivering a return of 24.6%.

Monetary Expansion Key for Bitcoin’s Future Growth

Hayes continues to argue that Bitcoin’s value is tied to the continuous debasement of fiat currencies, especially the US dollar. “For Bitcoin to be worth close to 100,000 United States of American Dollars requires continuous fiat monetary debasement,” Hayes explained. The increased liquidity driven by monetary expansion could make Bitcoin a more attractive investment for those seeking assets that could outperform traditional fiat.

Looking ahead to 2026, Hayes remains confident that a return to a more favorable liquidity environment will drive Bitcoin’s price higher. With increasing dollar liquidity and an expanding money supply, he believes that Bitcoin will find its “groove” again, challenging traditional markets like gold and tech stocks for investor attention.

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