BTC Buy Signal Triggered

Action appropriate, but at lower confidence allocation

Photo by Toby Dagenhart on Unsplash

Lazy new bull seems to be somewhat weighed down, perhaps by the weight of some unusually enormous horns?

As I am writing this, the BTC market just closed for January 14, 2026 at the price of $96,955, which exceeded my $96,250 trigger price. So, one minute after the close, I took the action that I described in my most recent post made at 9:30 AM Eastern Time on January 14, 2026 (less than 24 hours ago), to buy BTC (or its derivative ETF’s) at the next available market price.

But I only did so near the lower end of the 20% to 80% range of the planned allocation of available cash remaining, at only 25%.

Why so low? Because I was quite disappointed that the one outside confirmation that I was looking to for some additional guidance, was so weak as to have nearly failed completely. As you may recall from my earlier post, I posited that a strong bull market in BTC should be led by its most leveraged and liquid derivative, which I see as being the stock, MSTR.

Despite its snorting charge in the early trading hours, where it was up over 9.94% at its high of the day, MSTR ended the day up only 3.66% at the close. While BTC (using the IBIT ETF to synchronize the time frames being compared), ended the day up 3.49%. So while MSTR did manage to outperform, it was only by the slim margin of 3.66% to 3.49% (+0.17%). Further, that slim margin looks more like a failure when compared to the much bigger loss in MSTR as it dropped like a rock from being up over 9.94% at its high, down to its closing gain of only 3.66% (-6.28%)!

That is the primary reason why I only allocated 25% of remaining cash to follow this triggered buy signal.

Now, a BTC close below $90,925 would invalidate that buy signal, and cause me to liquidate that additional position taken.

But if BTC does not drop down to close below that level, then this allocation will continue to be tightly held for the foreseeable future.

2026 will very likely prove to be pivotal across many important aspects of life. Therefore, we will likely be best served by paying close attention and acting accordingly. That is what I will be continuing to endeavor to do, and will continue to report my findings to you when they become actionable.

Best wishes!!!

Disclaimers: The views in this article are the author’s personal views. This commentary is provided for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. Individual circumstances and current events are critical to sound investment planning; anyone wishing to act on this article should consult with their advisor. The information provided in this article has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is believed to be accurate at the time of publishing, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, crypto currencies and money market funds involves the risk of loss. Their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated in the future.

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