TD Cowen cuts Strategy Bitcoin price target to $440

Investment bank TD Cowen analysts have revised their pricing prediction for Strategy, estimating it would be $440, down from their previous estimate of $500. 

They changed the plan because they believe the company’s methods of acquiring more Bitcoin could ultimately result in each share of the company being worth a little less. 

Strategy is acquiring Bitcoin quicker than the majority of analysts expected. It is now projected to acquire around 155,000 Bitcoins in fiscal 2026, up from 90,000. It intends to fund that accelerated acquisition by issuing more common shares and preferred stock. When a company sells more shares, each existing share represents a smaller piece of the company—a process called dilution—which can reduce the amount of Bitcoin attributed to each share and, in turn, its value

The analysts calculated that in 2026, the firm’s “Bitcoin yield” will be 7.1%. This is lower than their previous estimate of 8.8%, and much lower than the 22.8% yield in 2025. In simple terms, even though the company will get more Bitcoin, each share will benefit a little less because more shares are being issued.

Strategy snaps up Bitcoin while prices drop

Even though Bitcoin prices have been lower recently, Strategy has not slowed down. The company has been using the dip in Bitcoin prices to buy more. For example, in the week ending January 11, 2026, the firm sold approximately 6.8 million shares of its regular stock and 1.2 million shares of its special preferred stock, designated as STRC. This raised around $1.25 billion. Nearly all of this money was used to buy an extra 13,627 Bitcoins.

The analysts said that many people might have expected Strategy to slow down, since the company’s Bitcoin price seemed very low. But Strategy chose to continue buying aggressively. The analysts believe the company made this decision because they expect Bitcoin prices to go up again in the future.

Because most of these new Bitcoin purchases were funded by selling shares close to their current value, they did not increase the “Bitcoin yield” much. In other words, while the company bought more Bitcoins, the benefit for each share was small.

The analysts believe this strategy only works if Bitcoin prices rise, which they consider likely due to improved regulations from governments and stronger economic conditions.

Strategy drives growth and prepares for bigger Bitcoin gains

TD Cowen’s analysts expect Strategy to keep selling shares and preferred stock as long as Bitcoin prices stay low. They predict that by December 2026, the price of Bitcoin could reach around $177,000. By December 2027, the price is expected to increase to approximately $226,000. As prices rise, the Bitcoin yield per share is expected to improve in 2027, meaning each share will represent a greater value of Bitcoin again.

Even though the analysts lowered the price target and expect a smaller Bitcoin yield in the short term, they still think Strategy is a good way for people to invest in Bitcoin. They said the company’s preferred stocks could provide investors with both income and the opportunity to make a profit if the stock price increases. For example, they highlighted the senior STRF preferred shares, which could offer a return of approximately 30%.

The analysts also mentioned news about MSCI, a company that makes indexes for investors. MSCI recently decided not to remove Bitcoin treasury companies, such as Strategy, from its indexes. This is good news for Strategy in the near term. However, the analysts cautioned that uncertainty could persist in the future. They explained that big investors, such as BlackRock, make a significant amount of money from Bitcoin investment products, and sometimes these investors may view companies like Strategy as competitors. This could influence decisions by index makers in the long term.

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