Bitcoin reclaims $93K after December CPI print as traders price in Fed hold

Bitcoin regained $93,000 after US inflation rose 0.3% in December, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates later this month.

Traders are weighing firmer headline inflation against contained core readings and a pickup in crypto trading activity.

Attention is also shifting to a pending US Supreme Court decision on former President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which analysts say could sway risk appetite across markets.

Bitcoin price: Market snapshot, price and flows

Bitcoin traded at $93,406 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.

That marked the first move above $93,000 in nearly a week and a gain of more than 2% in the past 24 hours, per Decrypt.

Around the time the inflation report was released, BTC was at approximately $92,176.63, up 1.62% on the day, according to a separate market update.

Trading activity has increased. CoinGlass data showed Bitcoin volume up 20% in the past day to $88.9 billion.

Still, Glassnode noted that while volume has “rebounded modestly from cycle lows,” spot cumulative volume delta has “deteriorated,” indicating more sell-side pressure and a “more defensive near-term posture.”

Cumulative volume delta tracks whether buyers or sellers are the more aggressive side over time.

On the prediction market Myriad, which is owned by Decrypt parent company Dastan, users assigned an 80% probability that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before dropping back to $69,000.

Broader sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index improved from Extreme Fear a month ago but sat in Fear on Tuesday.

Inflation data and rates outlook

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% month over month in December and 2.7% year over year.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month over month and 2.6% year over year.

“The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in December and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase,” according to the release.

These readings align with a market view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the January 29, 2026, FOMC meeting.

Public snapshots of CME FedWatch-based probabilities circulating in late December showed a hold skew for January, with “no change” clustered in the high-70% range, according to KuCoin.

What drove CPI

Shelter was the key contributor to the monthly increase, rising 0.4% in December.

The contained 0.2% core reading suggests less pressure from categories outside food and energy, reinforcing the “Fed stays parked” base case into late January.

What it means for digital assets

Rate expectations remain the primary channel into risk assets.

Source commentary noted that shelter-led inflation keeps term premium firm, while a 0.2% core limits the “higher-for-longer” tail risk that can weigh on longer-duration crypto exposures.

Options markets are in a similar posture.

Deribit describes DVOL as an options-implied volatility benchmark that settles using a 60-minute time-weighted average price, a backdrop that can reduce carry costs for traders positioning into upcoming macro events.

What to watch next

Analysts at Singapore-based QCP Capital said that following the CPI print, markets are watching how the US Supreme Court rules on Trump’s tariff policies, with a decision possible as soon as Wednesday.

They wrote the outcome “could further influence cross-asset positioning and risk sentiment,” noting that prior tariff announcements have triggered volatility across equities and digital asset markets.

Looking ahead, the Fed’s January 29 meeting and the next CPI release scheduled by the BLS for February 11, 2026, are in focus for macro-driven crypto traders.

Bottom line, Bitcoin’s rebound above $93,000 comes with firmer activity but mixed signals under the surface.

Inflation details keep a rate hold in play, leaving positioning, real yields, and legal or policy headlines as the next catalysts.

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