VanEck Predicts Positive 2026 Market, But Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Risk

TLDR

• VanEck forecasts a risk-on market environment for 2026, driven by clarity in fiscal policy and monetary trends.
• Investment themes like AI, gold, and private credit are expected to perform well in the upcoming year.
• Despite overall market optimism, VanEck expresses caution regarding Bitcoin’s short-term performance.
• Bitcoin’s four-year trading cycle was interrupted in 2025, leading to less reliable short-term signals.
• VanEck analysts believe Bitcoin’s price movements will be uncertain in the next 3 to 6 months.

VanEck forecasts a risk-on market environment for the first quarter of 2026, citing improved clarity on fiscal policy, monetary trends, and key investment themes like AI, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrency. While markets are becoming more predictable, the firm remains cautious about Bitcoin’s outlook. Despite the broader optimism, VanEck’s analysts express concerns over Bitcoin’s near-term performance, influenced by shifting market cycles and recent trends.

VanEck Optimistic on AI, Gold, and Credit

VanEck expects a risk-on environment to prevail in early 2026. The firm highlights the growing visibility in fiscal policies and market conditions. Investors have a clearer view of trends, making markets more predictable.

The firm sees growth in investment themes such as AI, gold, and private credit. These areas have attracted attention due to their strong fundamentals and growth potential. VanEck also points to the steady recovery in U.S. government finances, which has supported market confidence.

However, despite this overall optimism, VanEck remains cautious about Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency’s behavior has diverged from traditional markets, especially following the October 2025 deleveraging event. Bitcoin’s four-year trading cycle was interrupted, leaving the asset’s short-term movements uncertain.

Bitcoin’s Outlook Remains Cautious Amid Market Shifts

VanEck’s analysts have taken a more cautious stance on Bitcoin, particularly in the near term. The company expressed concerns that the cryptocurrency market cycles are less predictable. The interruption of Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle in 2025 makes short-term signals less reliable.

Despite these concerns, some analysts within VanEck hold a more optimistic view. Executives like Matthew Sigel and David Schassler continue to support Bitcoin’s long-term potential. However, the firm believes the next few months may be volatile for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s divergence from equities and gold is also worth noting. The cryptocurrency has performed differently from other high-risk assets like tech stocks and AI. The upcoming months could see continued uncertainty as Bitcoin navigates through a shifting market landscape.

While VanEck remains cautious in the short term, it continues to believe in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. The firm’s earlier projections suggest that Bitcoin could reach up to $2.9 million by 2050 if it captures a significant share of global trade settlements and central bank reserves.

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