Opendoor (OPEN) Stock: Can Trump’s Housing Plan Deliver Real Rate Relief?

TLDR

• Opendoor stock jumped 13.2% on Friday to $7.29 after Trump announced a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities purchase program aimed at lowering housing costs
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the plan will match the Fed’s monthly runoff of about $15 billion, with FHFA starting with a $3 billion initial purchase
• Analysts predict the program might only reduce mortgage rates by 10-15 basis points, with current 30-year rates around 6.2%
• The policy reignites debate over privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with analysts skeptical about a near-term IPO
• FHFA Director Bill Pulte says Trump has “30 to 50” additional housing ideas coming in the weeks ahead

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Opendoor Technologies closed Friday up 13.2% at $7.29 after President Donald Trump unveiled a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities purchase program. Volume hit 167 million shares as the stock swung between $6.82 and $7.91 during the session.

Opendoor Technologies Inc., OPEN

The announcement sent housing stocks into rally mode across the board. Mortgage lenders like loanDepot, Rocket Companies, and UWM Holdings gained ground. Homebuilders Lennar, D.R. Horton, and PulteGroup also climbed.

Trump revealed the plan on Truth Social, claiming the purchases would “drive Mortgage Rates DOWN” and reduce monthly payments. The Federal Housing Finance Agency kicked things off with a $3 billion initial purchase.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out the framework. The buying will roughly match the Federal Reserve’s monthly runoff of about $15 billion in mortgage-backed securities. The Fed still holds just over $2 trillion of these bonds.

Bessent made clear the program probably won’t lower mortgage rates directly. Instead, it aims to narrow the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields. Average 30-year mortgage rates currently sit around 6.2%, down from nearly 8% earlier this year.

Rate Impact Remains Uncertain

Chen Zhao, head of Redfin economics research, offered a reality check. The $200 billion injection would likely nudge rates only about 10 to 15 basis points. That’s 0.10 to 0.15 percentage points for those keeping score at home.

TD Cowen suggested the move might tighten the spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield. Jefferies put the “back-to-market” mortgage rate level around the mid to high-5% range.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, raised concerns. He cautioned this approach could be “self-defeating” if demand surges ahead of supply. More buyers without more homes means prices could climb again.

FHFA Director Bill Pulte told Reuters the firms have “ample liquidity” to carry out the buys. That’s despite their combined cash and cash equivalents totaling less than $17 billion as of Sept. 30. Pulte declined to specify a timeline, citing upcoming housing initiatives at Davos.

Opendoor’s business model makes it especially sensitive to mortgage rate moves. It buys homes, holds inventory, and aims to flip them fast. Rising rates can stall that turnover almost immediately.

Even slight changes in borrowing costs impact demand, pricing, and financing expenses for the homes it owns. Lower mortgage rates usually boost the number of buyers and sellers, pushing up transaction volume.

Privatization Plans Take a Back Seat

The policy move reignited debate over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s future. Both mortgage giants have been under government control since the 2008 financial crisis.

The World Economic Forum’s annual gathering in Davos is set for Jan. 19-23. FHFA Director Bill Pulte says Trump has “30 to 50” additional housing ideas in the works, with further announcements arriving in the weeks ahead.

Trading picks up Monday with all eyes on the gap between mortgage bonds and Treasuries. The details on pace and execution will carry more weight than the top-line figure. Housing-related stocks have been closely tied, so a shift in lenders or homebuilders might ripple through to Opendoor.

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