Bitcoin’s recent price action is reviving an uncomfortable comparison that many traders remember all too well – the transition from the 2021 bull market into the 2022 bear market.
While the market environment is different today, several technical signals are lining up in a way that feels familiar, especially on the weekly timeframe.
- Bitcoin’s weekly RSI behavior closely resembles early bear-market phases from previous cycles
- Two major corrections in 2025 followed a familiar divergence pattern seen in 2021
- Current RSI levels suggest conditions for a potential swing bounce rather than a full reversal
- The $91k-$93k zone may act as a front-run bearish retest if higher levels are never reached
At the center of the discussion is momentum. During the final stages of the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin printed two clear bearish RSI divergences in overbought territory. Each of those signals was followed by a deep correction of more than 50 percent before any meaningful trend reversal took shape. Those moves marked the start of a prolonged bearish phase rather than simple pullbacks.
A similar rhythm has started to emerge in the current cycle. Bitcoin already experienced two notable drawdowns during 2025, first in Q1 and then again in Q3. While these declines were shallower than in 2021, they followed the same pattern of weakening momentum and failed attempts to reclaim previous highs. Importantly, both moves occurred after bearish RSI divergences had already formed.
Weekly momentum now mirrors early bear-market behavior
One of the most telling similarities lies in the weekly RSI behavior. In both 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI slipped below the 50 level after the second major correction. From there, price stabilized while RSI based out in the 30-40 range, eventually producing a counter-trend bounce before the broader bearish structure continued.
As of early 2026, weekly RSI is hovering near the low 30s while Bitcoin trades around the $80,000 area. Historically, this zone has acted as a pressure point where downside momentum begins to fade, at least temporarily. This does not automatically signal the end of a downtrend, but it does suggest conditions where a relief rally becomes increasingly likely.
If history rhymes, the current setup could represent the construction phase of a swing bounce rather than a full trend reversal. In past cycles, these rebounds often occurred when sentiment was at its weakest and expectations were skewed heavily to the downside.
The battle over the bearish retest zone
Another key similarity comes from how Bitcoin behaved around Fibonacci retracement levels during previous cycle transitions. In 2021, traders widely expected price to retest the psychologically important $50,000 level, which aligned with the 0.5 retracement. That level never arrived. Instead, Bitcoin reversed lower around the 0.382 retracement near $47,000, effectively front-running the consensus target.
A comparable situation is now developing. Many market participants are watching the $98,000 area as the next major bearish retest, which aligns with the 0.382 retracement of the latest move. The 0.5 level sits even higher, near $103,000, often viewed as the maximum zone for a corrective rally in a developing downtrend.
However, history suggests Bitcoin does not always give the market what it expects. There is a growing argument that price could stall well below $98,000, especially if momentum fails to improve meaningfully. In that scenario, the $91,000 to $93,000 region becomes increasingly important. This area includes the 0.236 retracement and sits close to the yearly open, making it a natural zone for sellers to reassert control.
What would change the outlook
While bearish retest scenarios dominate current technical discussions, they are not set in stone. A sustained daily or higher-timeframe close above the yearly open would significantly weaken the case for a shallow bounce and reopen the path toward higher retracement levels. Until that happens, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than impulsive.
For now, the market appears caught between fading downside momentum and a lack of clear bullish confirmation. If the comparison with 2022 continues to hold, Bitcoin may be approaching a phase where volatility compresses, sentiment remains fragile, and short-term bounces offer temporary relief before the next decisive move emerges.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-flashes-a-pattern-last-seen-before-the-2022-bear-market/
