Daily Market Update: Bitcoin and Stock Futures Hold Steady Before Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

TLDR

• Bitcoin maintains position around $91,000 ahead of Supreme Court decision on Trump tariff powers set for January 10
• Stock market futures show minimal movement with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq contracts nearly unchanged on Friday morning
• Prediction markets indicate 76% probability Supreme Court will not fully uphold Trump’s emergency tariff authority
• December employment data expected Friday showing 70,000 jobs added and 4.5% unemployment rate
• Gold price forecast reaches $5,050 per ounce in 2026 according to HSBC analysis of geopolitical factors

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Bitcoin prices remained stable near $91,000 during Friday’s Asian trading session. The cryptocurrency market is waiting for a Supreme Court decision on tariff policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

The Supreme Court could rule as early as January 10 on President Trump’s tariff powers. The decision involves whether Trump properly used emergency authority to impose global trade duties.

Stock index futures showed flat performance on Friday morning. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures contracts traded with minimal changes overnight.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

Two major catalysts are driving market attention this week. The December jobs report releases Friday morning. The Supreme Court may also issue its tariff ruling on the same day.

Polymarket data shows traders assign only 24% odds to the Supreme Court fully backing Trump’s tariff approach. The president used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for the trade measures.

Employment forecasts predict 70,000 new payrolls for December. The unemployment rate is expected to drop slightly to 4.5% from the previous month.

These job numbers carry extra weight after recent data delays. Federal government shutdown issues disrupted November’s report and cancelled October’s release. The information will influence Federal Reserve policy choices at the upcoming meeting in three weeks.

Crypto Market Response to Tariff News

Historical data shows crypto markets react differently to tariff announcements than traditional assets. Research from CoinDesk labeled the early 2025 tariff period a “Tariff Tantrum” event.

Price declines during that period were sharp but brief. Selling pressure came from liquidations and momentum trading rather than long-term investors exiting positions.

Ether changed hands around $3,100 on Friday. The second-largest cryptocurrency fell more than 2% in 24 hours despite weekly gains.

A limited Supreme Court ruling could create new policy questions. Economist Jose Torres from Interactive Brokers suggested Trump would pursue alternative methods if blocked. Such workarounds might increase long-term interest rates and reduce global liquidity.

Bitcoin has historically stabilized faster than stocks when policy uncertainty continues. Correlations between crypto and equity markets tend to weaken during extended periods of regulatory confusion.

Precious Metals and Stock Performance

HSBC released price targets for gold in early 2026. The bank’s analysts see potential for $5,050 per ounce based on current trends. Rising sovereign debt and geopolitical tensions support the bullish forecast.

The prediction includes warnings about price swings. Gold could pull back later in 2026 if risk factors diminish or the Federal Reserve shifts policy.

Major U.S. stock indexes are posting gains for the first full trading week of 2026. The S&P 500 climbed nearly 1% through Thursday’s close. The Dow Jones gained approximately 1.8% for the week while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.1%.

Trump announced plans for government purchases of mortgage-backed securities totaling $200 billion. The proposal aims to reduce mortgage rates and improve housing affordability. Specific implementation details have not been released.

Asian traders appear more concerned about uncertainty duration than the ruling itself. The focus has shifted from tariff outcomes to how long markets will face unclear trade policy.

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