U.S. Crypto Legislation Faces Delay Due to 2026 Election Cycle

TLDR

• TD Cowen warned that the ongoing U.S. crypto legislation could be delayed due to the 2026 elections.
• The CLARITY Act passed the House, but still awaits markups in key Senate committees.
• Senate Democrats may hesitate to support the bill ahead of uncertain election outcomes.
• The bill includes provisions to prevent senior officials from owning or influencing digital assets while in office.
• TD Cowen expects the legislation to pass in 2027, with full implementation possibly in 2029.

A major effort to establish a federal crypto framework may face delays as U.S. lawmakers shift focus to 2026 elections, according to a new warning from TD Cowen. The investment bank’s Washington Research Group stated that the sweeping crypto legislation, currently advancing through Congress, risks losing momentum due to growing political uncertainty. Analysts now expect the bill’s passage in 2027, with full implementation potentially delayed until 2029.

CLARITY Act Faces Political Resistance Ahead of Midterms

The CLARITY Act, which passed the House in July, remains under review in the Senate as the Responsible Financial Innovation Act. TD Cowen reported that Senate Democrats may withhold support as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Lawmakers are unlikely to prioritize the bill during an uncertain political season.

The Senate Agriculture Committee released a bipartisan draft in November to address conflict-of-interest concerns. It includes measures to restrict senior officials, including Donald Trump and his family, from owning or influencing digital assets. These provisions aim to respond to long-standing Democratic concerns about Trump’s connections to crypto ventures.

TD Cowen noted that the bill’s outcome may depend more on political timing than on content. “Election outcomes are always uncertain, which is why Democrats may cut a deal,” the bank’s note said. It suggested compromise is possible if both parties see advantage in delaying implementation.

Trump Provisions Raise Debate on Crypto Involvement

The draft legislation introduced specific conflict-of-interest rules linked to Trump’s past and present crypto associations. Critics have cited Trump’s ties to American Bitcoin, World Liberty Financial, and token launches using his brand. The draft seeks to prevent any direct involvement by elected officials while they remain in office.

Some Democrats insist these provisions are necessary to maintain public trust in regulatory integrity. However, applying them retroactively to Trump remains a contentious issue. TD Cowen believes Democrats may need to concede on this point to reach a final deal.

The report stated that if implementation begins in 2029, post-election pressure may lessen. It emphasized that both sides could revisit the conflict clauses under a new political landscape. That scenario could shape how final rules are enforced, especially depending on presidential results.

Crypto Legislation Faces 2026 Election Hurdles

The Responsible Financial Innovation Act awaits markups in two Senate committees: Banking and Agriculture. Reports indicate the first markup session may begin later this month. These markups represent a crucial step in advancing the bill to a Senate vote.

Industry leaders continue calling for regulatory clarity to curb talent flight and investment barriers. Coinbase’s John D’Agostino recently said the bill could take longer than stablecoin legislation but is still moving forward. He cited bipartisan engagement as a key reason for optimism about eventual passage.

TD Cowen stated that early 2027 is the most realistic timeline for final passage. The bank emphasized that the process will remain politically sensitive until after the 2026 midterms. The crypto legislation’s future now depends on the evolving balance of power in Congress.

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