Bitcoin price enters moderate expansion as spot-driven gains outpace derivatives

Adler AM says Bitcoin’s price advance is spot-led, with its derivatives pressure index in “Expansion (Moderate)”, negative divergence, and no signs of euphoric leverage yet.​

Summary

• Adler AM’s composite derivatives pressure index, normalized on a 0–5 Z-Score scale, has turned positive after December’s flat-to-negative readings.​
• Divergence between price and open interest is negative, meaning BTC price has risen faster than OI, a classic signature of a healthier, spot-led rally.​
• The current regime is “Expansion (Moderate)”; risk rises if OI accelerates, divergence flips sharply positive, and liquidations spike without fresh spot support.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has recovered amid a return of risk appetite, with market analysis indicating the rally is being led by spot trading rather than leveraged positions, according to research from Adler AM.

Where does BTC price head into 2026?

The composite derivatives pressure index has returned to positive territory following December’s deleveraging period, the analysis stated. The spot market is currently leading the rally rather than leverage, representing what analysts characterized as a structurally healthier dynamic.

The market has transitioned into a moderate expansion regime, with price growth outpacing the buildup of derivatives positions, indicating a spot-driven nature of the move, according to the report.

The composite index, which ranges from 0 to 5 and is normalized via a 90-day Z-Score, reflects aggregate derivatives pressure including open interest momentum, price momentum, divergence, acceleration, and absolute position levels. The index entered positive territory after an extended period around zero and below in December, the analysis showed.

The current reading indicates moderate but not extreme optimism, remaining far from the “overheated” zone above +1.5, according to the report. The regime is classified as Expansion (Moderate), meaning both price and open interest are rising simultaneously.

A positive Z-Score confirms the return of constructive sentiment in the derivatives market, the analysis stated. A sustained hold above +1.5 would trigger strengthening, while a pullback into negative territory accompanied by rising liquidations would signal deterioration.

Divergence, calculated as the difference between 7-day open interest change and 7-day price change, currently sits in negative territory, meaning price has risen more than open interest over the past week, according to the data. This contrasts with mid-December, when divergence was sharply positive against a backdrop of falling prices, indicating short accumulation.

Negative divergence is considered a sign of a spot-driven rally, which is historically more sustainable, the analysis noted. Risk would emerge if divergence reverses into positive territory without price support, signaling excessive leverage.

The composite index remains in the moderate expansion zone, with the divergence pattern confirming that spot demand is the driver, according to the report. The key focus is monitoring open interest acceleration; if derivatives begin aggressively chasing price, this would increase the risk of a local correction, analysts stated.

The current Expansion (Moderate) regime means both price and open interest are rising but not reaching extreme thresholds above the 80th percentile, representing a normal trend phase without signs of euphoria, the analysis indicated.

A transition to Strong Expansion would occur upon breaking upper thresholds on both indicators, while a transition to Distribution would occur if open interest continues to rise while price reverses down, according to the report. The key deterioration marker is positive divergence above +5% with stagnating price.

The main trigger for continuation is price holding above current levels with gradual rather than explosive open interest growth, analysts stated. The main risk is a sharp reversal of divergence into positive territory without price support, which would indicate excessive accumulation of speculative positions.